What are Penn State hockey’s chances of a return to the NCAA Tournament?

Penn State hockey entered this season looking to return to the NCAA Tournament after falling in overtime of the quarterfinals to Michigan last year. The Nittany Lions have had many ups and downs over the first half of the year, including some upset wins and unexplainable losses. As we move into the second half of the 2023-24 season, what are Penn State’s chances of making a return to the postseason?

Where are the Nittany Lions in the pairwise rankings?

The pairwise is a computer ranking that determines who makes the NCAA Tournament in March. Losing against good teams on the road doesn’t hurt you as much as to a bad team at home. It is a predictive ranking system that doesn’t care about the margin of victory, but rather just who came out on top and whether it was in regulation or overtime.

Penn State hockey currently sits at No. 19 out of a total of 64 Division I hockey teams. Only 16 teams make the NCAA tournament, but six of those spots are automatic bids assigned to the conference tournament champions.

Where does Penn State hockey need to finish?

The Atlantic Hockey Tournament champion usually is outside of the top 16, so that always steals a spot. This season the CCHA will also be stealing an at-large bid with its champion, as none of the conference’s teams are in the top 16. The ECAC has defending national champion Quinnipiac at No. 3, but no other team ranked inside the top 20. So, if the Bobcats are upset in their conference tournament, that would take another spot.

Generally speaking, the top 12 teams are considered safe to make the tournament as an at-large, even with a few conference tournament upsets. Considering that the Hockey East, Big Ten, and NCHC have 14 of the top 15 teams, the conference tournament champion from each conference will most likely come from a top-ranked program. That means that the top 13 this season are likely safe. If Quinnipiac takes care of business, the top 14 in the pairwise rankings can reach the tournament.

That means that Penn State hockey is currently four spots from being on the bubble and six spots from being safely in the projected at-large cut line. The Nittany Lions have had tough home losses to both AIC (No. 22) and Alaska-Anchorage (No. 49) that have kept them out of the NCAA Tournament projections.

Key wins against Minnesota (No. 12), Michigan (No. 15) and ties against Michigan State (No. 7) and Notre Dame (No. 18) have kept Penn State in the top 20, however.

Chance to improve ranking

The good thing for Penn State hockey heading into the second half of the year is that the schedule provides plenty of opportunities to make the jump into the top 14.

After a tune-up against Army (No. 51) this Saturday at Pegula, the Big Ten slate will feature multiple top-ranked teams. Wisconsin is the highest-ranked team in the conference, currently at No. 5. Ohio State is the lowest at No. 30. Not including the Buckeyes, Penn State is the second lowest of the seven teams at No. 19.

While the tough remaining games will provide opportunities to move up in the rankings, getting wins in the Big Ten this year will be a challenge. If Penn State hockey can find a way to pick up some upset road splits, that would help tremendously. The biggest challenge will be trying to sweep Ohio State both at home and away. The Buckeyes are by far the worst team in the conference, and a loss would be a big blow to the Nittany Lions’ postseason hopes.

Here is the remaining conference slate and their current pairwise rankings (all are two-game series):

Away: Michigan State (No. 7)

Away: Notre Dame (No. 18)

Home: Ohio State (No. 30)

Home: Minnesota (No. 12)

Home: Michigan (No. 15)

Home: Wisconsin (No. 5)

Home: Ohio State (No. 30)

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