The puck drops of the 2023-24 Penn State hockey season tomorrow! Can the Nittany Lions make another run at the NCAA Tournament? Our staff breaks down the entire schedule for this winter!
Can Penn State Hockey make a return to the NCAA Tournament?
Last season, Penn State hockey finished No. 8 in the nation and made a run to the NCAA Quarterfinals before a heartbreaking overtime loss to Michigan in Allentown. This year, the Nittany Lions look to make back-to-back tournament appearances for the first time since 2017-2018. Our own Jaret Gold (@JaretGold) and Patrick Sweda (@PatrickSweda) break down each series and give predictions as to how the 2023-24 season will play out.
OCT 7 at Long Island
Patrick:
This is one of those games that is more of a can’t-lose when building your resume for the Pairwise rankings and NCAA Tournament later in the season. Long Island just got a Division 1 program a few seasons ago, and it has been an adjustment for the Sharks. Penn State leads the all-time series 2-0, with the sweep occurring back in 2021 with scores of 3-1 and 5-2. It is unusual for the Nittany Lions to start the season on the road, but this game will be big for momentum heading into the upstate New York road trip the following weekend.
Prediction: Penn State wins (1-0)
Jaret:
One of Division I hockey’s newest members is struggling to adjust to life at the highest level. Since starting the program in 2020, the Sharks have posted a record of 23-56-4. Their record last season, 13-22-1, marked their best in program history. Penn State and LIU have met before for two games at Pegula in 2021, both of which were won by Penn State. LIU has been active in the transfer portal, and I would expect them to continue to improve this season. It won’t be quite the cakewalk it was in 2021, but Penn State should win its opener on the road.
Prediction: Penn State wins (1-0)
OCT 13/14 at Clarkson/ @ St. Lawrence
Patrick:
This is the part of the schedule where we find out what type of team Penn State really has this season. Penn State is 3-1 all-time against Clarkson, with the last matchup a series sweep in October of 2018 that was a 4-3 and 5-1 win. The lone loss in the series came during a similar trip in 2017, where the Nittany Lions lost 2-1.
The second part of this road trip is a trip to play the St. Lawrence Saints. Penn State is 2-2-1 all-time against St. Lawrence. The last matchup was a 4-1 Nittany Lions win in Canton, New York, on the opening weekend of the 2017-18 season. While this series is split all time, most of the matchups occurred before Penn State broke through and made the NCAA tournament.
If Penn State hopes to return to the NCAA Tournament this season, it will need to win both of these games. Neither of these teams will probably make the NCAA tournament, with Clarkson having the best chance. Early season games often are decided by veteran goaltenders while teams figure out line chemistry. Liam Souliere has already established himself as one of the greatest goalies in Penn State history, and I expect the team to lean on him during this weekend.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (3-0)
Jaret:
Penn State’s second week takes them on an Upstate New York ECAC road trip. It has made this exact trip to open the season in 2017, which ended in a loss to Clarkson but a win at St. Lawrence.
Clarkson had an average 16-17-4 season last year, which is a down year for its standards. As a result, it picked up a lot of talent in the portal from bigger-name schools like Michigan and Providence. Coupled with last year’s strong freshman class maturing, it will likely be a successful season in Potsdam. This will be a good early-season test for Penn State hockey, one that I see the Lions dropping.
St. Lawrence, a perennial bottom dweller in the ECAC, is on the upswing. It had a 4th place finish in the conference with a 17-19-0 overall record. The Saints returned a lot from last year’s team but didn’t really add much either via conventional recruiting or the portal. It should have another solid season, but there isn’t enough top-end talent to knock off Penn State hockey.
Prediction: Penn State splits (2-1)
OCT 20/21 vs American International
Patrick:
Penn State hockey welcomes AIC back to Pegula for the first time since the 2017-18 season. Penn State leads the all-time series 4-2. The last meeting resulted in a series split with a 7-5 win on the opening night and a 3-2 loss the following. AIC isn’t one of those teams that should scare you as a Penn State fan. It is often towards the top of the Atlantic Hockey Conference, but that is normally a one-bid league.
Being that this series is the home opener, I expect Penn State to get its offense rolling early and often feeding off the Pegula crowd. The Nittany Lions have scored 4+ goals in all four of their wins against the Yellow Jackets so that is the number to look for on the stat sheet.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (5-0)
Jaret:
AIC returns to Pegula for the first time since 2017, ironically the weekend after Penn State last did an Upstate New York trip. It even stole a game in OT during that series. Since then, AIC has become a giant killer of sorts, knocking off the No.1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament in 2019. AIC has been dominant in Atlantic Hockey over the last few years, but they seem to be dropping off. Last year, it posted a 14-8-4 record and failed to win a series in its conference tournament. A name on the roster that might sound familiar to Penn State fans is Jordan Biro. He is the brother of former Nittany Lion Brandon Biro. This year’s iteration of the Yellow Jackets should be one Penn State handles with ease.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (4-1)
OCT 26/27 vs Alaska Anchorage
Patrick:
Alaska-Anchorage makes the trip to Pegula for the 7th and 8th meeting between the two schools. Penn State hockey leads the all-time series 3-1-2. The last matchup was a series sweep in November of the 2016-17 season that saw the Nittany Lions win 6-3 and 3-1. The Seawolves were one of the teams most affected by the pandemic. The program was disbanded for the 2021 and 2022 seasons due to a lack of funding and high travel expenses. It is often hard for both Alaska schools to afford the travel both from not having any close teams on the West Coast and being a hockey independent. I expect Penn State hockey to roll and put up a ton of goals in this series. If the offense was struggling before, this could be just the medicine they need to get back on track.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (7-0)
Jaret:
Alaska-Anchorage makes its first trip to Hockey Valley in seven years, where it suffered a sweep back in 2016. The Seawolves are one of the least successful programs in college hockey, having not appeared in an NCAA tournament in 31 years. There is not nearly enough talent on this roster to build off its eight-win season last year, and will not be much of a threat to the Lions.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (6-1)
NOV 4/5 vs Notre Dame
Patrick:
This normally would have been one of the toughest Big Ten openers a few years ago. With six Big Ten teams ranked and Notre Dame coming in at the back end at No. 20, this is actually one of the series that you need to win. Penn State has not had a favorable record against Notre Dame, going 9-19-3. That includes a 4-8-2 record in Pegula Ice Arena. The Irish have largely dominated this series and have won 7 of the last 10 meetings. These two teams are very similar this year in that they are both expected to hover somewhere around .500 and the NCAA Tournament bubble by the end of the season.
Prediction: Penn State splits (8-1, 1-1)
Jaret:
Big Ten play will kick off with Notre Dame headed to Pegula. Last year was surprisingly average for the Irish, posting a 16-16-5 record and missing the NCAA tournament. I don’t think that will continue under coach Jeff Jackson, who has only had two losing seasons in South Bend since arriving there in 2005. The Irish will be a very defensive sound that will give Penn State hockey fits, even at home. Generally, every time these two teams play, they split. That is what I expect to see here.
Prediction: Penn State splits (7-2, 1-1)
NOV 10/11 at Michigan State
Patrick:
Michigan State has typically been a pushover and one of the few conference opponents that Penn State has a winning record over. Penn State hockey leads the all-time series 21-16-5. This year’s Spartan team isn’t the typical bottom dweller we have become used to. Coach Nightingale has this program rolling, and they have been active in the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail. It is clear that Michigan State is one of the teams that has taken advantage of being a Big Ten school and having deep NIL pockets. The Spartans were rewarded with a No. 9 ranking in the preseason USCHO poll and look to be a contender for the Big Ten title this year. Any points this weekend would be a success for Penn State.
Prediction: Michigan State sweeps (8-3, 1-3)
Jaret:
Michigan State has been at the bottom of the Big Ten since it existed. The Spartans haven’t made the NCAA tournament since 2012, a few years before the Big Ten came to be. That is all changing under second-year head coach Adam Nightingale. He has been recruiting at an elite level and returns a lot of talent from last year’s surprisingly successful 18-18-2 season. They were rewarded with a top-10 preseason ranking in the USCHO.com poll. Michigan State will be a problem for Penn State, and the Big Ten, for a long while. East Lansing has been difficult for Penn State even when Michigan State was bad. Now, it is hard to picture the Lions picking up a win here.
Prediction: Michigan State sweeps (7-4, 1-3)
NOV 17/18 at Michigan
Patrick:
This series caps off 6 straight ranked games and 4 straight on the road. Penn State hockey is 15-26-1 against Michigan all-time. The last time these two teams met was saw gut gut-wrenching overtime goal by the Wolverines that sent them to the Frozen Four. The Wolverines are once again ranked within the top 5 and are expected to contend for the National Title. On top of that, Yost Ice Arena has been an absolute house of horrors for Penn State, going 3-14 there all-time. This is a series where you just need to not get embarrassed so that the team still has momentum heading into the following weeks.
Michigan sweeps (8-5, 1-5)
Jaret:
Speaking of tough places for Penn State to win, none has been tougher than Yost Ice Arena. It has won one game there since 2014. It doesn’t help that Michigan is loaded with future NHL talent yet again. The Wolverines won’t be quite as good as last year’s team that beat Penn State in OT to get to the Frozen Four, but they will be a tough out. They are deserving of their No. 5 preseason ranking. Again, this is a series where I find it hard to see this Penn State team picking up a win.
Prediction: Michigan sweeps (7-6, 1-5)
NOV 24/25 vs Lindenwood
Patrick:
This will be the first-ever meeting between the two teams. Lindenwood is still a brand-new program at the NCAA Division 1 level, although it did have a ton of success in the ACHA. This is a series that Penn State needs to dominate, and anything less than a pair of 2 to 3 goal wins should be deemed a failure.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (10-5)
Jaret:
Penn State hockey will return to Pegula for a nice reprieve after its toughest road trip of the season. Lindenwood, who played its first Division I season last year, heads to Hockey Valley for the first time. It won seven games last year and is still too young of a program to challenge Penn State.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (9-6)
DEC 1/2 vs Minnesota
Patrick:
Minnesota has turned into one of Penn State’s top rivals in hockey. Minnesota’s fans claim that Penn State ruined college hockey because it forced the formation of the Big Ten and broke them off from their traditional rivals. Penn State does trail the all-time series 17-24-1 and is 9-10-1 at home. However, it is important to note that the recent return to dominance by the Gophers has seen them take 9 of the last 11 games. This series has been streaky because, between 2017-2020, it was Penn State who held the 12-2-1 advantage.
This year the Gophers enter as the No. 3 team in the nation and are yet another Big Ten team that expects to return to the Frozen Four. Having this game at home a week before classes end should be an advantage for Penn State. There is a chance that Minnesota enters ranked No. 1 and, at the very least, will most likely be the first Top 10 opponent in Pegula for the season. That means the crowd will have a little extra juice, and should be enough to help Penn State get some points.
Prediction: Minnesota wins/tie (10-6-1, 1-6-1)
Jaret:
Last year’s national runner-up will come into Pegula in early December, albeit a defanged version. Minnesota lost the likes of Logan Cooley and Matthew Knies to the NHL. Those two stars will be tough to replace, but there is still a lot of talent on the roster. The Gophers are still preseason Big Ten favorites and ranked No.3 nationally. It will be another successful season for Minnesota, but I see them taking a bit of a step back from last year. I think Penn State will be able to take advantage of that on home ice.
Prediction: Penn State splits (10-7, 2-6)
DEC 8/9 at Wisconsin
Patrick:
Wisconsin is the team that Penn State has had the most success against since the Big Ten was formed. Penn State leads the all-time series 27-19-3. The problem is the Nittany Lions are just 10-10-2 at the Kohl Center. It is a big cavernous arena that can sort of put you to sleep, and that is something that even good Penn State teams in the past struggled with. Wisconsin is also bringing on new head coach Mike Hastings who left Minnesota State after dominating with the Mavericks. Don’t be surprised if you see this team beat some ranked teams this year.
Prediction: Penn State splits (11-7-1, 2-7-1)
Jaret:
A struggling Wisconsin program made a big splash this offseason when it hired Mike Hastings to coach the program. He comes from Minnesota State, where he went 207-63-19 in 11 seasons with multiple Frozen Four appearances. This was a home run hire for Wisconsin, which has had a lot of talent but hasn’t been able to maximize it. It might take a few seasons, but Wisconsin will be a formidable team yet again. Even this year, Penn State’s annual trip to the Kohl Center will be tougher than normal.
Prediction: Penn State splits (11-8, 3-7)
JAN 6 vs Army
Patrick:
This will be the first game back after the month-long break in between semesters and will be the game without a student section. Typically, this game is scheduled to get some momentum heading into the second half of conference play. Penn State is 3-0 all-time against the Black Knights, with the last win coming last season in West Point 5-3. Penn State hockey should take care of business once again before a brutal Big Ten stretch.
Penn State wins (12-7-1)
Jaret:
Army will head to Pegula for the first time since the building’s opening night back in 2013. This single game is a return trip from Penn State’s trip to West Point during the 2021-2022 season. Army is yet another bottom dweller, having never appeared in an NCAA tournament in their existence. It is bound for another sub-.500 finish and should be a pushover at Pegula.
Prediction: Penn State wins (12-8)
JAN 12/13 vs Michigan State
Patrick:
As already mentioned, the Spartans are going to be a tough team this year. This will be the first series that the students are back on campus for, and it should be a great home environment. Penn State hockey is 12-5-1 against Michigan State in Pegula all-time and has found great success. If the Spartans don’t live up to expectations from a combination of youth needing more time, this could be an opportunity for Penn State to grab some extra points
Prediction: Penn State wins/tie (13-7-2, 3-7-2)
Jaret:
The aforementioned Spartans will be tough out, even at home. I can see the crowd willing the Lions to a win, however.
Prediction: Penn State splits (13-9, 4-8)
JAN 19/20 at Notre Dame
Patrick:
The Irish have always been a tough out, and traveling there will not be easy. Penn State has struggled at times at Notre Dame, but that was a much more dominant team. If Penn State hopes to stay on the NCAA bubble, it will need to grab at least a win in Compton Family Ice Arena. This could be a big game in positioning for seeding in the Big Ten Tournament.
Prediction: Penn State splits (14-8-2, 4-8-2)
Jaret:
Of all the road trips Penn State consistently makes, South Bend is decently friendly to the Lions. This trip usually ends in a split, so that is what I will go with here.
Prediction: Penn State splits (14-10, 5-9)
JAN 26/27 vs Ohio State
Patrick:
Ohio State enters the season once again ranked in the top 20. The Buckeyes are a similar team to Penn State in that they are on the NCAA Tournament bubble entering the season and will need to notch some quality wins in conference play and avoid the bad losses to get a favorable Pairwise ranking. Penn State is 18-25-4 all-time against Ohio State and 6-10-4 at home. It is also important to note that the Saturday game will be this year’s White Out at Pegula Ice Arena. This could be a series where both are pretty even, so momentum could be a major factor.
Prediction: Penn State splits (15-9-2, 5-9-2)
Jaret:
Ohio State enters the season in an interesting spot. The Buckeyes are ranked in the top 15 nationally, but picked to finish last in the Big Ten. I tend to side more with the Big Ten poll, as this is a Buckeyes team that had 16 players leave in the offseason. They didn’t recruit well enough to fill that gap, so there should be a major step back in Columbus, likely the Big Ten’s worst team.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (16-10, 7-9)
FEB 9/10 at Minnesota
Patrick:
Minnesota has dominated the series recently and is 14-7 all-time against Penn State hockey at home. A team with Big Ten and National Title aspirations will probably dominate this series. If Penn State gets any points out of this series, that should be considered a win.
Prediction: Minnesota sweeps (16-10-2, 5-11-2)
Jaret:
Minnesota should be rounding into form by the time Penn State makes the trip north. It is hard to see Penn State picking up a win in this series.
Prediction: Minnesota sweeps (16-12, 7-11)
FEB 16/17 vs Michigan
Patrick:
This is going to be one of the best shots Penn State has to knock off a top 10 opponent. Pegula will surely be rocking, and the NCAA Tournament picture will begin to take shape by this point in the season. The Nittany Lions always do seem to play the Wolverines well at home, with a 9-9-1 record.
Prediction: Michigan sweeps (16-12-2, 5-13-2)
Jaret:
Penn State hockey could be a bubble team by this point with a massive opportunity against a highly ranked Michigan team. Penn State has the talent to compete, but not win both. The Nittany Lions split in front of a raucous home crowd.
Prediction: Penn State splits (17-13, 8-12)
FEB 23/24 vs Wisconsin
Patrick:
This is the best opportunity of the season for Penn State to pick up some Big Ten points and try and get wins to push them into the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin may be hitting a rough patch with it rebuilt squad and worn down by this point in the season.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (18-12-2, 7-13-2)
Jaret:
Pegula has not been kind to the Badgers. I think a motivated Penn State squad will be able to take advantage of a Wisconsin team trying to find its identity in Hasting’s first year.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (19-13, 10-12)
MAR 1/2 at Ohio State
Patrick:
Penn State has had success playing in Columbus with an 11-14-2 record. This may be a loser leaves town game for the postseason. At the very least, the loser of this series may have to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Penn State splits (19-13-2, 8-14-2)
Jaret:
Ohio State will be bad this year, and the Lions have proven they can win in Columbus (see: 2019, 2022 Big Ten Tournaments). They get their first road sweep of the year, helping their NCAA tournament odds.
Prediction: Penn State sweeps (21-13, 12-12)
Penn State hockey record and postseason Outlook
Patrick:
I have Penn State going 19-13-2 and 8-14-2 in the conference. If the Nittany Lions are able to take care of business in the nonconference, it will come down to getting quality Big Ten wins in order to make the NCAA Tournament. A loss in the nonconference could prove to be catastrophic to Penn State’s Pairwise ranking.
The Big Ten is absolutely loaded this year on paper, but how the conference performs overall in the nonconference will also have an impact. Last year the conference had 4 teams make the 16-team field, with two more on the bubble. That was thanks in part to a dominant start to the year. If Penn State finishes 6 games above .500, that should be enough to get the Nittany Lions in. But it will probably just be a low 3 or high 4 seed this season.
Jaret:
Not accounting for possible overtime and shootout losses, I have Penn State going 21-13 overall with a 12-12 record in conference. That probably won’t be enough for an NCAA Tournament berth, given the very weak non-conference schedule. Penn State got lucky last season that non-conference opponents Alaska and RIT had remarkable seasons that saw them ranked in the top 20 of the Pairwise. Without that, Penn State would have been much closer to the bubble at the end of the season. There really are no candidates outside of Clarkson for a team that could even knock on the door of the top 20.
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