Penn State lacrosse facing must-win road test in season finale

Penn State lacrosse picked up an impressive 14-8 win over Michigan on Saturday to close out the 2024 home slate at Panzer Stadium. The Nittany Lions snapped a two-game losing streak and improved to 8-3 (2-2 Big Ten) on the year. The game was a must-win for Penn State’s postseason hopes, but another do-or-die matchup awaits the Nittany Lions Friday night at Rutgers in the regular season finale. Will the Blue and White keep a return bid to the Final Four alive, or will its NCAA Tournament bubble burst in Piscataway?

Penn State lacrosse enters regular season finale on NCAA Tournament bubble

At times, Penn State lacrosse looked like it could win the national title this season. At other times, the Nittany Lions have also looked like they might miss the NCAA Tournament outright. But what are the chances that Penn State will make the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive season?

According to Lacrossereference.com, Penn State currently has a 75.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament with the regular season finale against Rutgers and the Big Ten Tournament remaining. The Nittany Lions have a 51% chance to get an at-large bid and a 24.6% chance of winning the conference tournament. All told, it’s a pretty good spot to be in with the chance to pick up some more high-quality wins.

Penn State currently is No. 8 in the latest RPI rankings. Bracketology gives the Nittany Lions a 27.1% chance to get seeded for the NCAA Tournament. The top eight teams in the field are seeded and host their first-round matchups. Both times Penn State lacrosse has made the Final Four, it was seeded. The Nittany Lions earned the No. 1 overall seed in 2019 and were a No. 5 seed in 2023.

Nittany Lions in another must-win spot in regular-season finale

Penn State lacrosse took care of business last week against Michigan in what was a must-win for the team. Now on Friday night, the Nittany Lions will have to do the same, this time on the road against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 7-5 (1-3) on the season and ranked No. 25 in the RPI. That is last in the conference by a significant margin.

The analytics say that the chances of Penn State securing a spot in the NCAA Tournament are dramatically impacted by this game. With a win, the Nittany Lions improve their chances by 14.9%, and will have a 90.5% chance of a earning bid. That would put the Blue and White in a comfortable position and take some of the pressure off in the Big Ten Tournament.

An upset loss to Rutgers drops the Nittany Lions’ chances by 21.7%, all the way down to a 53.9% shot of a bid. It would put Penn State squarely on the bubble, and most likely mean that it would have to make a run to at least the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game to have a chance at an at-large bid.

Everything still in front

Last year’s loss in the Final Four to Duke was a heartbreaker. This year’s team certainly could make a return to Philadelphia, and has flashed its talent with wins over top 10 Yale and Cornell. But the Nittany Lions have also suffered inexplicable fourth-quarter collapses against Maryland and Johns Hopkins.

Penn State lacrosse entered the year as the No. 4 team in the country. While they haven’t maintained that ranking throughout the year, the Nittany Lions still have a chance to finally break through. Anything can happen once you reach the postseason. Penn State just needs to make sure it gets there first.

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