Rooting Guide: Which Week 13 games are most important for Penn State football?

Penn State football bounced back from the Michigan loss and ground out a 27-6 win over Rutgers on Saturday. Last week at one point, it looked like Nittany Lions fans had a chance to go a perfect three for three with the teams that needed to lose to help Penn State’s New Year’s Six odds. Miami was up on No. 10 Louisville multiple times throughout the game, but ultimately fell 38-31. Florida had multiple chances to put away No. 9 Missouri, but ended up losing on a last-second field goal.

The one game that benefited Penn State was a 22-20 win for No. 5 Washington over No. 22 Oregon State in Corvallis. The loss by the Beavers gave them their third loss of the season, and bumped them below the Nittany Lions in the CFP Rankings. Penn State could have used some more help to solidify a New Year’s Six Bowl spot, but getting the Oregon State loss was at least a start.

Penn State football fans’ rooting guide to college football Week 13

Penn State moved up one spot in the College Football Playoff rankings this week to No. 11. The Nittany Lions are in good position to make a New Year’s Six Bowl game if they beat Michigan State and nothing crazy happens during conference championship weekend. However, there are still some matchups that could help push Penn State off the New Year’s Six bubble and a lock for a big-time bowl.  Here are the games to keep an eye on throughout the Week 13 slate.

No. 12 Ole Miss (9-2) @ Mississippi State (5-6) THU 7:30 pm ET ESPN

Ole Miss is coming off a solid 35-3 win over Louisiana-Monroe last weekend. Mississippi State took down Southern Miss 41-20 on Saturday to pick up its fifth win of the season. The Bulldogs will need to pull off the upset if they hope to go bowling this season. Ole Miss enters as a 10-point road favorite.

Penn State football currently sits ahead of Ole Miss in the College Football Playoff rankings, but the Rebels are part of a cluster of two-loss teams. Most likely this game won’t impact the rankings too much, but it does give the Nittany Lions some breathing room if Mississippi State is able to pull off the upset and win the Egg Bowl.

TCU (5-6) @ No. 13 Oklahoma (9-2) FRI 12:00 pm ET FOX

TCU enters off a 42-17 win over Baylor on Saturday. Oklahoma escaped Provo with a 31-24 win over BYU. The Horned Frogs need to pull off the upset in order to make a bowl game this season, a far cry from their National Championship appearance last season. Oklahoma still has an outside chance to make the Big 12 Championship if the Sooners can get some help. Oklahoma enters as a 10-point home favorite.

This game is similar to the Egg Bowl in that Oklahoma is one of the teams with two losses that is right behind Penn State in the rankings. A loss keeps the Sooners behind the Nittany Lions and out of the Big 12 title game.

No. 17 Iowa (9-2) @ Nebraska (5-6) FRI 12:00 pm ET CBS

Iowa enters off its Big Ten West-clinching 15-13 win over Illinois on Saturday. Nebraska fell at Wisconsin 24-17 for its third consecutive loss. The Hawkeyes are looking for yet another 10-win season and will need to take down a rival to do so. Nebraska looked to be a lock to end its six-year bowl drought, but will now need an upset over Iowa to reach six wins. Nebraska enters as a 2.5-point home favorite.

Iowa is the best win on Penn State’s schedule. The Hawkeyes reaching 10 wins and continuing to climb in the rankings is beneficial. If the Nittany Lions remain on the New Year’s Six bubble, they will need wins like Iowa and West Virginia to continue to improve so they can use those games as positive data points.

No. 9 Missouri (9-2) @ Arkansas (4-7) FRI 4:00 pm ET CBS

Missouri squeezed out a last-second win over Florida 33-31 last weekend. Arkansas got back on track with a 44-20 win over FIU. Missouri locks up a New Year’s Six Bowl with a win over Arkansas this weekend. The Razorbacks have had a bad season, but a top 10 upset could carry momentum into the offseason and help recruiting. Missouri enters as a 7.5-point road favorite.

This is the most important game of the weekend for Penn State. A Missouri loss would move Penn State football up in the CFP rankings and all but lock up a New Year’s Six Bowl game. The Tigers would be picking up their third loss of the season, and there would be no reason to keep them above a two-loss Penn State.

Kentucky (6-5) @ No. 10 Louisville (10-1) 12:00 pm ET ABC

Kentucky fell to South Carolina 17-14 last week, which was its fourth loss in the last five games. Louisville clinched an ACC Championship game appearance with a 38-31 win at Miami. While the records aren’t close this season, rivalry games can be weird sometimes. Louisville enters as a 7-point home favorite.

Behind the Missouri game, this is the second most important game of the weekend for Penn State football. If Kentucky beats Louisville, it would be the Cardinals’ second loss of the season and potentially could drop them below Penn State in the College Football Playoff rankings. Even if the Cardinals don’t drop below the Nittany Lions this week with a loss, they almost certainly would drop below with a third loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship game.

No. 8 Alabama (10-1) @ Auburn (6-5) 3:30 pm ET CBS

Alabama took advantage of its “SEC bye week” by dismantling UT-Chattanooga 66-10. Auburn had one of the most shocking losses of the college football season when it fell 31-10 to New Mexico State at home. The Tigers entered as a 25.5-point favorite and were dominated by the Aggies from start to finish. Auburn now has to bounce back and try to take down one of the hottest teams in college football. Alabama enters as a 14.5-point road favorite.

This matchup may not end up changing Penn State’s New Year’s Six odds much. An Alabama loss would only be its second, and the Crimson Tide would most likely remain ahead of the Nittany Lions in the rankings. What Penn State football fans would have to hope is that Alabama would then go and get blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game and potentially get dropped in the rankings. An outside chance, but something that definitely still a scenario when breaking down the rivalry week slate.

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