Penn State Lady Lions prepare for one final push to NCAA Tournament

Penn State Lady Lions basketball has had a resurgence this year, finishing the regular season with an 18-11 (9-9 Big Ten) record. The Lady Lions now find themselves firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. What must Penn State do in the Big Ten Tournament to keep dancing into March Madness?

Lady Lions endure roller-coaster regular season

Penn State Lady Lions basketball had an up-and-down season this year. The Lady Lions sprinted off to a 16-5 start and reached as high as a seven-seed in NCAA Tournament projections, according to Charlie Creme of ESPN. The team was rolling and averaging 90+ points a game, and it had won six games in a row by an average margin of 16 points.

The Lady Lions also climbed to No. 4 in the Big Ten standings with a 7-3 conference record. Penn State looked to be in the driver’s seat to get a double bye to the quarterfinals of the conference tournament. Then, the season got flipped upside down for head coach Carolyn Kieger.

Penn State lost senior guard Tay Valladay to a season-ending ACL injury at the end of January. Valladay had been averaging 11.5 points per game and was the Lady Lions’ fourth-leading scorer at the time of her injury. Penn State proceeded to lose six straight games, including bad losses to .500 teams Illinois and Wisconsin.

First four out

While the team rebounded the last two games of the season to defeat Purdue and Minnesota, Penn State is on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament in the latest bracketology. The Lady Lions have been a part of the first four out for the past week or so, despite picking up the two wins against the Boilermakers and Golden Gophers.

While the two wins didn’t boost the profile of Penn State Lady Lions basketball, it didn’t sink the team’s Tournament hopes by adding more bad losses. Penn State now needs to have some success in the Big Ten Tournament if it hopes to make its first NCAA Tournament in over a decade.

How many wins does Penn State need?

The Lady Lions have a solid NET ranking of 26, thanks to a solid non-conference resume. Yet, it doesn’t appear to be enough in the latest bracketology projections. Penn State earned a seven-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will face 10-seed Wisconsin (3-15, 6-12 Big Ten) on Thursday.

A loss to the Badgers effectively ends the hopes of Penn State, but a win probably doesn’t get them off the bubble either. The quarterfinal opponent is No. 2 seed Iowa and college basketball superstar Caitlin Clark. A win over Iowa would lock the Lady Lions into the Tournament, although that will be a tall task.

There is a slight chance that Penn State will make the dance by just beating Wisconsin, but the Lady Lions would need a lot of other results to go their way. It would have to start with fellow Big Ten bubble teams Michigan and Maryland losing in the first round of the conference tournament. Both are included in the last four byes in the latest bracketology.

Other teams on the bubble losing would also help. Marquette and Auburn are currently part of the last four byes, and early losses would be beneficial.

However, the most important losses would be from Mississippi State, Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Green Bay, who are the last four teams in per the latest projections, or Texas A&M, Columbia, and Villanova, who join Penn State as the first four out.

There is an endless possibility of scenarios as conference tournament week gets underway. But the path is simple for the Penn State Lady Lions basketball program: win two games, and you’re in; win one game and hope for help; lose the opener, and you’re out.

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