PREVIEW: Penn State wrestling faces Rutgers in annual BJC dual

No. 1 Penn State wrestling (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) is fresh off a dominant 29-6 win over No. 3 Iowa on Friday night at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Now, the Nittany Lions return home and will take on No. 14 Rutgers (10-4, 3-3) on Monday night in the much anticipated annual Bryce Jordan Center dual. What should we expect to see from this top-15 matchup inside the BJC?

Penn State wrestling vs Rutgers preview

Penn State enters off a statement win over No. 3 Iowa on Friday night. Rutgers lost its last three outings, including most recently to No. 6 Ohio State 22-12 in Piscataway on February 4.

Penn State leads the all-time series 23-0 over Rutgers. The last meeting featured a 33-8 win for the Nittany Lions in Piscataway last season. Penn State will enter with all 10 wrestlers ranked inside the top 10 of their respective weight classes. Rutgers has eight out of their 10 wrestlers ranked.

The Scarlet Knights will be entering with plenty of rest and will almost certainly wrestle their entire starting lineup. Penn State wrestling is coming off an emotional dual against Iowa, so don’t be surprised if a few of the usual starters aren’t in the lineup.

Match to watch

133: No. 6 Aaron Nagao 9-3 (PSU) vs No. 10 Dylan Shawver 18-5 (RU)

Aaron Nagao picked up another ranked win when he took down No. 20 Cullan Schriever by an 11-0 major decision on Friday. Nagao improved to 9-3 on the season and has a bonus percentage of 75%.

Dylan Shawver enters off of a 5-4 decision over No. 11 Nic Bouzakis last weekend. This came after Bouzakis upset Nagao a few days earlier, 13-7. Shawver is 17-5 on the season and has a 45.45% bonus percentage.

This is one of two top-10 matches in this dual, and should be the most competitive. Nagao’s three losses this season have come to No. 1, No. 4, and No. 11 in the national rankings. However, the common opponent of Bouzakis is what makes this one a toss up. The fact that this is at home and at the Bryce Jordan Center should give Nagao the slight edge, but expect this one to go the distance.

Projected Lineups

125: No. 2 Braeden Davis 14-1 (PSU) vs No. 19 Dean Peterson 9-4 (RU)

133: No. 6 Aaron Nagao 9-3 (PSU) vs No. 10 Dylan Shawver 18-5 (RU)

141: No. 1 Beau Bartlett 15-0 (PSU) vs No. 19 Mitch Moore 11-3 (RU)

149: No. 10 Tyler Kasak 11-2 (PSU) vs No. 26 Michael Cetta 12-5 (RU)

157: No. 1 Levi Haines 12-0 (PSU) vs Andrew Clark 6-4/AJ DeSantis 5-10 (RU)

165: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink 16-0 (PSU) vs Anthony White 9-10/Luke Gayer 9-9 (RU)

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci 10-0 (PSU) vs No. 13 Jackson Turley 9-3 (RU)

184: No. 6 Bernie Truax 9-2 (PSU) vs No. 19 Brian Soldano 11-7 (RU)

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks 11-0 (PSU) vs No. 22 John Poznanski 12-2 (RU)

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet 10-0 (PSU) vs No. 8 Yara Slavikouski 14-2 (RU)

Penn State vs Rutgers predictions

125: No. 2 Braeden Davis (PSU) by decision

133: No. 6 Aaron Nagao (PSU) by decision

141: No. 1 Beau Bartlett (PSU) by decision

149: No. 10 Tyler Kasak (PSU) by decision

157: No. 1 Levi Haines (PSU) by tech fall

165: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) by tech fall

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci (PSU) by major

184: No. 6 Bernie Truax (PSU) by decision

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) by tech fall

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) by major

FINAL SCORE: No. 1 Penn State 38 – No. 14 Rutgers 0

This is another dual where Penn State wrestling can essentially name the score. If the Nittany Lions start their entire starting lineup, then anything less than a shutout would be a disappointment. There are two top-10 matchups that, on paper, could be close.

Out of those two, Aaron Nagao is the most in danger of losing to Shawver at 133 pounds. Nagao has shown some shakiness at times this season, and a top-10 opponent on his level could be something to watch.

While there is a top 8 matchup at heavyweight, I don’t expect it to be very close. The gap between Greg Kerklvliet and seemingly everyone else seems to be wide. He has already dominated both No. 6 Lucas Davison (Michigan) 8-3 and No. 7 Nick Feldman (Ohio State) 12-0. The matchup with No. 8 Yaraslau Slavikouski is more likely to be a major decision than an upset win.

The key to this match will be who starts and who rests. Penn State often doesn’t wrestle all its starters for both duals of a weekend. Any wrestler who hit the mat against Iowa is on the radar to sit out for rest against Rutgers. The same goes for anybody who rests against Iowa is usually a lock to start, unless there is an unknown illness like what we saw with Carter Starocci a few weeks ago.

This could be another opportunity to see young wrestlers who are planning on redshirting but haven’t reached the five-event threshold yet. Any chance to wrestle in a big dual environment against a quality opponent is always a positive towards long-term development.

How to watch?

Date: February 12^th, 2024

Time: 7:00 pm ET

TV: Big Ten Network (BTN)

Location: Bryce Jordan Center

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