PREVIEW: Penn State wrestling ready for statement weekend at Big Ten Championships

Penn State wrestling will look to get its postseason run off to a roaring start at the Big Ten Championships in College Park, Maryland. Cael Sanderson and his team cruised through the regular season and are heavy favorites to repeat as champions. Which Nittany Lions should we expect to have the most success this weekend?

Penn State wrestling: Big Ten Championships preview

Penn State wrestling is once again a massive favorite to win the Big Ten Championships this year. The Nittany Lions have five wrestlers seeded No. 1 and six wrestlers earning a bye directly to the quarterfinals.

The injury status of Carter Starocci is still unknown heading into the tournament. Most believe that he will medically forfeit out and rest up for NCAAs, but it remains unclear what the plan is for the star wrestler.

While most of the Nittany Lions are looking to hold onto their No. 1 seeds for Nationals, a few are hoping to make some improvement to their standing with success in the conference tournament.

Penn State is projected to score 151 points in this year’s tournament, without even taking into account bonus points. Last season, the Nittany Lions scored 147 points to take first place. The most that Penn State has ever scored in the tournament was 157 points in 2019, which is 12^th all-time.

The record for most team points in the Big Ten Championships was 200 by Iowa in 1983. Back then, there were only 10 teams in the conference. It is unlikely that Penn State can come close to that record, especially if Carter Starocci doesn’t wrestle. However, it could still be a top-five all-time Big Ten Championship-scoring performance this weekend for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State wrestling hasn’t won back-to-back Big Ten titles since a run of four straight between 2011 and 2014. Despite that, Cael Sanderson has won the NCAA Championships three times when his team didn’t take home the Big Ten Championship, most recently in the 2022 season. The Nittany Lions’ top three team competitors this weekend will be the Iowa Hawkeyes, Nebraska Cornhuskers, and Michigan Wolverines.

Weight by weight preview:

125: No. 6 Braeden Davis (16-2)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 6^th

Prediction: 4^th

The 125-pound weight class has been chaotic across all of college wrestling this season. That could either benefit or hurt Braeden Davis. Davis should be able to take care of No. 11 Tristan Lujan of Michigan State in the first round, but the real test will be in the quarterfinals against likely No. 3 Eric Barnett of Wisconsin.

If Davis is able to upset Barnett, there isn’t a reason to believe that he can’t compete with the other wrestlers within the top four. While unlikely, the unpredictability of 125 pounds does open the door for the true freshman to get hot and win the whole thing. His floor is likely around where he is seeded, as there is a huge gap between Davis and the rest of the field in the national rankings.

133: No. 5 Aaron Nagao (10-4)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 6^th

Prediction: 3^rd

Aaron Nagao has had somewhat of a disappointing year based on preseason expectations. However, even his losses have been close, and he can beat everyone ahead of him. No. 1 Dylan Ragusin (MICH) did pin him in sudden victory, but it was a close match throughout. He lost to No. 2 Dylan Shawver (RUT) 9-6 in sudden victory, as well.

The only match that wasn’t too close was a 13-7 loss to No. 3 seeded Nic Bouzakis (OSU). Overall,  Aaron Nagao showed last year that, if he puts it together, he can make a run. All three of his conference losses are avengeable, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if he was standing atop of the podium on Sunday.

141: No. 1 Beau Bartlett (18-0)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 3^rd

Prediction: 1^st

Beau Bartlett feels like the most vulnerable of the No. 1 seeds for Penn State wrestling. It doesn’t have as much to do with his own skill level but rather how difficult the 141-pound weight class is this year. Bartlett should be the favorite to come out of this weight, but his main competitors will be No. 2 Real Woods (IOWA) and No. 3 Jesse Mendez (OSU).

Woods and Mendez are also ranked No. 2 and No. 3 nationally by InterMat, so no matter what combination of matchups we get in the semifinals and finals, it could be a preview of the NCAA Tournament. Bartlett has beaten every wrestler seeded 2-5 in this bracket and should be considered the favorite to win it.

149: No. 4 Tyler Kasak (13-3)

Ceiling: 1st

Floor: 4^th

Prediction: 3^rd

Tyler Kasak may be the most intriguing Penn State wrestler in this tournament. He has seemingly been getting better and better as the season progressed, and truly feels like a contender. His three losses have come to teammate Beau Bartlett 4-1, No. 3 Caleb Rathjen (IOWA) 11-8 in sudden victory, and No. 1 Ridge Lovett (NEB) 7-3.

Kasak held a decisive win over five-seed Dylan D’Emilio (OSU) 7-1, so it feels like his floor is his seed. The question will be whether the true freshman can take the next step. If Kasak were to upset Lovett in the semifinals, there isn’t a reason to believe he couldn’t beat Rathjen or Gomez. The more likely scenario, though, is that Kasak takes down one of the two wrestlers in a third-place match.

157: No. 1 Levi Haines (15-0)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 2^nd

Prediction: 1^st

Levi Haines had a slow start to the season. But the sophomore has been rolling the past few weeks, including a dominant 10-3 decision over No. 5 Peyton Robb (NEB) and a 12-0 major decision over No. 4 Jared Franek (IOWA). It is likely that Haines will have to face one of the two in the semifinals.

Making the finals should be close to a lock for Haines. He will be a favorite over whoever comes out of the other side of the bracket, and will probably take home the title at 157. This will be a spot where Penn State wrestling can pick up bonus points for the team competition.

165: No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink (19-0)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 2^nd

Prediction: 1^st

Mitchell Mesenbrink has been one of the most exciting wrestlers for Penn State all season. The redshirt freshman has exploded onto the scene with an undefeated record and a top-five national ranking. In the Big Ten Championships, it is likely that he would face Michael Caliendo (IOWA) in the semifinals. Mesenbrink took down Caliendo 12-6 in early February.

That leaves a potential championship match that everyone is looking forward to against No. 1 Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin. Hamiti is ranked No. 4 and one spot ahead of Mesenbrink in the latest InterMat Rankings. If Mesenbrink is able to win the 165 Big Ten title, there is a good chance that he will earn a top two or three seed in the NCAA Tournament.

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci (11-0)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: Medical Forfeit

Prediction: Medical Forfeit

Carter Starocci is the hardest wrestler to project. If he wrestles to the best of his ability, there is nobody in this competition that can contend with him. However, the injury questions open up the possibility that he may medically forfeit out of the Big Ten Championships.

The question is whether Starocci wrestles a match and then forfeits out. If he doesn’t place in the Big Tens, he will get an at-large for the Nationals, so he doesn’t have to wrestle to qualify. His quest for a fourth NCAA title will most likely overrule the Big Ten Championships. Therefore, it would be surprising if Starocci wrestles this one through.

184: No. 3 Bernie Truax (11-3)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 3^rd

Prediction: 3^rd

Bernie Truax has been solid this season, and he will have an opportunity to avenge a few of his losses in this tournament. Entering as the No. 3 seed, he will be projected to rematch with No. 2 Lenny Pinto (NEB) in the semifinals. Truax just lost to Pinto 8-6 in the last Big Ten dual of the season.

Ryder Rogotzke (OSU) is seeded fourth and pinned Truax during their dual matchup. However, Truax was up 9-4 and dominating before he got caught in a bad spot. That is why Truax shouldn’t finish any lower than third, but does have the upside to win the weight if he can make the finals.

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (14-0)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 1^st

Prediction: 1^st

Aaron Brooks should be one of the biggest locks to win his weight class for Penn State wrestling. The three-time National Champion is head and shoulders above everyone else at 197. He has defeated No. 2 Jaxon Smith (UMD) by 13-4 major decision, No. 3 Zach Glazier (IOWA) 5-1, and No. 4 Silas Allred (NEB) by 17-4 major decision.

Anything less than first would be a major upset. This will be one of the prime spots where Penn State wrestling can get bonus points and widen the gap in the team race. Don’t be surprised if Brooks is able to tech fall and major his way all the way to a title.

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (12-0)

Ceiling: 1^st

Floor: 1^st

Prediction: 1^st

The Big Ten heavyweight class is a little weaker than normal this season. It has fewer NCAA Tournament allocations than the EIWA conference, something that we don’t normally see. But Greg Kerkvliet is a step above the rest at the weight and has taken down everyone in his path this year.

Kerkvliet has beaten No. 2 Nick Feldman (OSU) by a 12-0 major decision and No. 3 Lucas Davison (MICH) via an 8-3 decision already this season. Similar to Aaron Brooks, this will be a big spot where Penn State wrestling can pick up a bunch of bonus points. Kerkvliet should win this tournament and be seeded No. 1 in the NCAA bracket when it is released.

How to watch the Big Ten Championships

Saturday, March 9:

10:00 am ET – Session 1 (First Round, Quarterfinals, Wrestlebacks) BTN

5:00 pm ET – Session 2 (Consolation Matches, Wrestlebacks) BTN+

7:00 pm ET – Session 2 (Semifinals) BTN

Sunday, March 10:

12:00 pm ET – Session 3 (Consolation Semifinals, 7^th Place Matches) BTN+

4:30 pm ET – Session 4 (1^st, 3^rd, and 5^th Place Matches) BTN

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