PREVIEW: Penn State wrestling faces biggest test yet at No. 5/13 Michigan

Penn State wrestling is off to a fast start to the 2023-24 season, with a dominant showing in its first four duals of the year. But the Big Ten schedule is about to get much more difficult, starting with a battle against No. 5/13 Michigan on Friday night. What can we expect to see from the Nittany Lions against the Wolverines this weekend?

Penn State wrestling vs Michigan preview

No. 1 Penn State wrestling (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) heads to Ann Arbor Friday to take on No. 5/13 Michigan (4-1, 2-0) for the first of two duals this weekend in the state. The Nittany Lions are coming off a dominant 46-0 home win over Indiana. In last weekend’s match, we saw Cael Sanderson’s team not surrender a single takedown. Michigan is fresh off two weekend wins that included a 38-3 victory at No. 25 Maryland on Friday night and a 29-12 victory over Michigan State on Sunday.

For both teams, this will be the first time that all 10 weight classes feature ranked vs ranked matchups. The dual will have five top-10 matchups and two top-5 matchups. Michigan will most likely be the most talented team that Penn State wrestling will face all season, outside of a trip to Iowa next month. Penn State leads the all-time series 35-24, including winning the last 12. The last meeting was a 30-8 victory for the Nittany Lions at the BJC last January.

This will be a good test for many young Penn State wrestlers who have been climbing up the rankings the past few weeks. The Nittany Lions have a trio of freshmen in Braeden Davis, Tyler Kasak, and Mitchell Mesenbrink, who will all get an opportunity to face top 10 opponents on the road on Friday. If any of the three wrestlers win, it would solidify their potential not just to become All-Americans, but also to be in contention for a national championship.

Projected matchups:

125: No. 14 Braeden Davis 10-0 (PSU) vs No. 5 Michael DeAugustino 6-1 (MICH)

This will be the toughest opponent that Braeden Davis has faced all season, and will give a better indication of whether he has a chance to be an All-American or not. Michael DeAugustino transferred to Michigan in the offseason after spending five years at Northwestern. He has qualified for the NCAAs every single year and finished fourth in 2022.

Davis certainly has the talent to beat the more veteran DeAugustino, but he will have to try and score early to make sure the Michigan crowd doesn’t get into it. The result of this match could dictate how the dual goes. If Davis pulls off the upset, it could swing momentum toward another Penn State blowout similar to last year. If DeAugustino scores bonus points, it could give Michigan the belief that it can win the dual outright.

Prediction: No. 5 Michael DeAugustino (MICH) by decision

133: No. 4 Aaron Nagao 7-1 (PSU) vs No. 6 Dylan Ragusin 16-0 (MICH)

Aaron Nagao has had a solid start to the year for Penn State wrestling in 2023. He has scored bonus points in all seven of his wins, with the lone loss coming to No. 1 Ryan Crookham of Lehigh. Dylan Ragusin is off to an undefeated start and is one of the top contenders in the Big Ten and nationally.

This match could be a preview of the Big Ten Championship in March, as the wrestlers are currently the top two at 133 in the conference. This is another tossup, and a result either way wouldn’t be too surprising. I don’t see a scenario where Ragusin scores bonus points for Michigan here; if anyone were to win by major or tech fall, it would be Nagao.

Prediction: No. 4 Aaron Nagao (PSU) by decision

141: No. 2 Beau Bartlett 10-0 (PSU) vs No. 25 Sergio Lemley 11-3 (MICH)

Beau Bartlett is off to an undefeated start, and his 60% bonus percentage is well above the 33.3% from last season. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it may show that he is a contender. But that doesn’t mean that it is all roses for the senior. Last week against Indiana, Bartlett needed some late scoring in the third period to get the decision over No. 22 Danny Fargaro.

Sergio Lemley is a solid opponent for Bartlett, but I think the senior will use his experience to overpower the true freshman. Lemley has lost both of his quality matches this year, and I don’t believe this one will be any different.

Prediction: No. 2 Beau Bartlett (PSU) by major

149: No. 12 Tyler Kasak 6-1 (PSU) vs No. 6 Austin Gomez 3-0 (MICH)

Tyler Kasak has been one of the best stories coming out of Penn State wrestling this year. When Shayne Van Ness was ruled out for the season with an injury, it was thought that the Nittany Lions’ title hopes at 149 were dashed. Kasak originally intended to redshirt at 141, but got his opportunity and has made the most of it. The true freshman has taken out back-to-back ranked wrestlers and now will face his toughest challenge of the year so far.

Austin Gomez has had a long and well-traveled journey through college wrestling. After redshirting his first season for Iowa State, he then finished No. 14 in his first year. Then back-to-back seasons of injury led him to Wisconsin for two seasons, where he finished fourth and in the round of 16 for the Badgers in 2022 and 2023. Now he is ranked No. 2 in the Big Ten and not only is a contender for the conference title, but also the national title.

This one truly could go either way, and while Kasak may be viewed as the wrestler with more upside, Gomez has the experience behind him wrestling in 80 career collegiate matches. This is another weight where Michigan should be favored to win. But if Kasak is truly a contender this season, he must pull the upset here on the road.

Prediction: No. 6 Austin Gomez (MICH) by decision

157: No. 1 Levi Haines 7-0 (PSU) vs No. 9 Will Lewan 5-3 (MICH)

Levi Haines has had an up-and-down start to the season. While he has a bonus percentage of 71.43%, he has struggled at times with inferior opponents. Against an unranked Isaiah Crosby of Oregon State, Haines trailed for much of the match before a streak of scoring late to pull out the 10-8 decision.

Will Lewan has been injured for much of the season and hasn’t competed since the Cliff Keen Invitational on December 1. Even if he gets the go against Haines, you have to wonder how healthy he is. If Michigan is forced to go to its backup, this could be an opportunity for Penn State wrestling to pick up five or six points.

Prediction: No. 1 Levi Haines (PSU) by major

165: No. 9 Mitchell Mesenbrink 11-0 (PSU) vs No. 7 Cameron Amine 7-3 (MICH)

Mitchell Mesenbrink has been one of the best wrestlers in Penn State’s lineup so far this season. He beat No. 13 Matthew Olguin (Oregon State) 17-2 by tech fall and then won over No. 23 Tyler Lillard (Indiana) by injury, although it was also trending toward another tech fall. Mesenbrink currently has gotten bonus points in 81.82% of his matches. This weekend we get to find out just how good he can be this year with his first top 10 opponent.

Cameron Amine has been nothing but consistent in his Michigan career. After redshirting his first season, he has finished seventh, fourth, and fourth in the last three NCAA Tournaments. He is coming off an upset 6-4 loss to No. 10 Caleb Fish (Michigan State) in his last match.

This is a good opponent for Mesenbrink, as he is a wrestler who has consistently finished in the top 10 but isn’t necessarily one of the top in the class. It will give Penn State wrestling fans an idea of whether Mesenbrink is truly in that top five range or if he is ranked right about where he should be.

Prediction: No. 9 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) by decision

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci 7-0 (PSU) vs No. 4 Shane Griffith 8-2 (MICH)

Carter Starocci is pound-for-pound the best wrestler in the country this year. I feel confident with that statement, and by the end of the year, the discussion will need to be more of where he ranks all-time in NCAA wrestling history. Starocci is cruising through every opponent and currently hasn’t had a match without bonus points this season.

Shane Griffith has wrestled his entire college career at 165 pounds. He went 19-1 during his redshirt year and made the NCAA Tournament all four years at Stanford, including winning the National Championship in 2021, runner-up in 2022, and a fifth place finish in 2023. However, that was all at 165 pounds. While great wrestlers can win at multiple levels, it is still an adjustment.

Wrestling Carter Starocci is also an adjustment that not many can make. Griffith will most likely be the highest-ranked wrestler that Starocci will face during the dual season. But I don’t think most people realize how large the gap between No. 1 and No. 4 is in this weight class. The three-time defending national champion should win with ease.

Prediction: No. 1 Carter Starocci (PSU) by major

184: No. 5 Bernie Truax 5-1 (PSU) vs No. 15 Jaden Bullock 12-5 (MICH)

Bernie Truax got the day off against Indiana on Sunday after taking his first loss of the season the week prior to No. 4 Trey Munoz of Oregon State. Truax finished fourth at the NCAA Championships the last three seasons and right now sits hovering around a similar InterMat ranking. He still is a contender for the national title at 184, but needs to get back on track Friday night.

Jaden Bullock is fresh off an 8-4 decision over No. 22 Layne Malczewski (Michigan State) this past weekend. He isn’t necessarily a contender for a national title but is the fourth-highest-ranked wrestler in the Big Ten. Truax should be the favorite in this match, given he rebounds from the loss two weeks ago.

Prediction: No. 5 Bernie Truax (PSU) by decision

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks 6-0 (PSU) vs No. 32 Bobby Striggow 5-5 (MICH)

Aaron Brooks is off to an undefeated start and has gotten bonus points in all six matches. The senior is fresh off back-to-back 19-4 tech fall wins in which he didn’t give up a single takedown. Bobby Striggow is coming off back-to-back losses last weekend to No. 5 Jaxon Smith (Maryland) and No. 29 Kael Wisler (Michigan State).

This should be a rather easy win for Brooks. Anything less than a tech fall would probably be considered a disappointment. Penn State wrestling should most likely have the dual wrapped up by this point, but if they don’t, this should be a spot to pick up some bonus points.

Prediction: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) by tech fall

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet 6-0 (PSU) vs No. 4 Lucas Davison 9-1 (MICH)

Greg Kerkvliet has gotten better each season finishing seventh, fourth, and second the past three seasons in the NCAA Tournament. This finally feels like the year that he can break through and win a national championship. This will be the heavyweight’s first opportunity to prove the validity of his No. 1 ranking.

Lucas Davison has had a great start to his season and went 2-0 last weekend against Maryland and Michigan State. Since moving up to 285 pounds in 2022, the former Northwestern wrestler finished sixth and fifth in the last two years. I predict Kerkvliet will pull out the win in this one, but it could be a close match that is decided in the third period.

Prediction: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) by decision

FINAL SCORE: No. 1 Penn State 29 – No. 5/13 Michigan 6

While both teams have wrestlers ranked at every weight class, not all rankings are created equal. Penn State has all 10 wrestlers ranked within the top 15 and four with a No. 1 ranking. If Michigan wins all of the toss-up matches, the closest I see this one being a 19-16 victory for the Nittany Lions. The Haines, Starocci, Truax, and Brooks matchups would be the difference in that situation.

The Nittany Lions will also have a chance to win every matchup. Is it likely that Penn State wrestling will sweep and shut out Michigan? Probably not. But it isn’t completely out of the question and would certainly put the wrestling world on notice that this team could be the one to break the NCAA Championship points record.

How to watch?

Date: January 19, 2024

Time: 6:00 p.m. ET

TV: Big Ten Network (BTN)

Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan

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