ESPN predicts early season stumbling block for Penn State football

Penn State football is off to a 4-0 start in the 2024 season, but ESPN doesn’t think James Franklin and the Nittany Lions’ record will stay unblemished for much longer. The worldwide leader’s updated football power index (FPI) is not optimistic about the Nittany Lions’ odds in their upcoming cross-country road trip to USC.

The FPI, updated on Tuesday, now gives USC a 53.1% chance of emerging victorious when the two programs square off at the LA Memorial Coliseum in two weeks. Powered by ESPN Analytics, FPI measures a team’s strength based on a net point scale of expected points margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field.

Penn State football ranks second in the Big Ten and No. 8 in the country with an FPI of 18.8. Ohio State leads the conference at 26.9, while Texas claims the nation’s top spot at 27.9. Oregon (18.4), USC (15.7), and Indiana (13.4) round out the top five in the Big Ten.

Can Penn State football still make the College Football Playoff with an early season loss?

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

As things currently stand, even an early October loss to USC shouldn’t derail the Nittany Lions’ expectations for 2024.

The FPI has Penn State projected to go 10-2, with the other predicted loss coming to Ohio State, who now has a 66.5% chance of defeating the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley on November 2. In each of its other six games, ESPN gives Penn State at least a 77% chance of winning.

The postseason projections also look bright, with ESPN’s model giving the Nittany Lions the seventh-highest odds of making the College Football Playoff at 60.3%. While much slimmer, Penn State also has the seventh-best chance to make the National Championship at 8.2%. ESPN gives James Franklin’s squad a 4.1% chance of winning out the remainder of the season.

Penn State football will test the accuracy of ESPN’s model when it travels to USC next weekend. Announced Monday, the contest is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET (12:30 PT) on CBS.

But before that, the Nittany Lions will host the other Big Ten program from Los Angeles, UCLA, this Saturday at noon inside Beaver Stadium. The game will air on FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff.

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