Ranking which Penn State wrestlers are most likely to win a NCAA title

The time that Cael Sanderson and Penn State wrestling have been waiting for all season has finally arrived: the NCAA Championships. The Nittany Lions will head to Philadelphia next week to begin their national title defense, looking to make it twelve titles in fourteen seasons.

On Wednesday, the NCAA released the seeding for each weight class, with four Penn State wrestlers earning No. 1 seeds. While seeding is important, matchups are also critical and can be the difference between making a quarterfinal or semifinal run and winning the national championship.

Which Penn State wrestlers are most likely to win a national championship?

With the brackets now set, some Nittany Lions have an easier path to a title, while others face more of an uphill battle. I ranked each Penn State wrestler from least to most likely to finish on top of the podium in Philadelphia next weekend.

No. 10 Braeden Davis (133)

Braeden Davis earned a No. 8 seed in the 133-pound bracket of this year’s NCAA Tournament. This is off the heels of a Big Ten Tournament where the sophomore finished fourth. The No. 8 seed is the lowest among all Penn State wrestlers; he is the only Nittany Lion to not be ranked inside the top four of his weight class.

Last season, Davis won the Big Ten Championship at 125 pounds and earned the No. 1 seed at the NCAA Championships. He was then upset in the quarterfinals and got eliminated in the round of 12.

This year, expectations are much lower, as Davis has had a more difficult time moving up in weight. Purely off seed, he should be able to make the quarterfinals before facing No. 1 Lucas Byrd, a wrestler that he has lost to 7-1 when Penn State wrestling faced Illinois a month ago.

Despite being last on this list, that isn’t to say Davis can’t make a deep run. We have already seen him defeat top-ranked wrestlers this season, such as No. 3 Nasir Bailey (Little Rock), No. 7 Nic Bouzakis (Ohio State), and No. 9 Braxton Brown (Maryland). Davis could potentially rematch with Brown in the second round of the tournament.

Like any wrestler under Cael Sanderson, sometimes it’s the guy you least expect to make a deep run who does. Braeden Davis will look to fill that underdog role for Penn State wrestling this year.

No. 9 Greg Kerkvliet (285)

Penn State wrestling heavyweight Greg Kerkvliet. © Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

It may be a surprise to have a defending national champion this low on the list. But there are two reasons why I am not high on Greg Kerkvliet repeating this year.

First, this Penn State lineup is perhaps the deepest ever under Cael Sanderson, simply meaning that someone has to fall near the bottom of the list.

Second, Kerkvliet is in a weight class with possibly the greatest heavyweight ever in Gable Steveson (Minnesota). Kerkvliet already faced Steveson in the Big Ten Finals, losing by a 10-3 decision. It was Kerkvliet’s first loss in 38 matches. On the other side, it was the first time Steveson didn’t earn bonus points all season.

Kerkvliet dropped to the No. 3 seed following the loss, setting him up for a showdown against undefeated No. 2 Wyatt Hendrickson (Oklahoma State) in the semifinal. Hendrickson has finished third each of the last two seasons while wrestling for Air Force.

More importantly, Kerkvliet won’t face Steveson until the NCAA Finals. While upsets happen all the time at the NCAA Tournament, Steveson seems like one of the biggest locks at the event.

Ultimately, a run to the championship match should be expected for Kerkvliet. He will be a massive contributor if Penn State wrestling hopes to break the team points record again this year.

No. 8 Josh Barr (197)

Josh Barr has perhaps the most uncertainty of any Penn State wrestler entering this tournament. The redshirt freshman injury defaulted out of the Big Ten Championships during the consolation rounds due to a leg injury. Barr dropped to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Championships after entering the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 2 ranked wrestler at 197 pounds.

Barr’s health will determine just how far he can go in the tournament. He has already proven that he can compete with the top wrestlers of the class throughout the Big Ten season.

The No. 4 seed gives Barr a projected path to make at least a semifinal run. He has already defeated No. 5 Michael Beard (Lehigh) and No. 12 Stephen Little (Little Rock) and split the season series with No. 1 Jacob Cardenas (Michigan).

Barr has a serious shot of making an NCAA Final appearance in his first season as a starter. I would probably put him higher on this list based on resume if not for his injury. For now, he has to be closer to the bottom when evaluating the chance to win it all.

No. 7 Shayne Van Ness (149)

Shayne Van Ness earned the No. 3 seed in the 149-pound weight class. The Nittany Lion enters with a 20-2 record and a 77.27% bonus. His two losses of the season came to No. 2 Ridge Lovett (Nebraska) and No. 7 Kannon Webster (Illinois), both of which are on his side of the bracket. The loss to Lovett was a major decision, but a match that Van Ness was leading heading into the third period. The more shocking loss was to Webster in the Big Ten Semifinals, where Van Ness entered as a heavy favorite.

Van Ness will rematch with either Lovett or Webster in next week’s semifinals. He certainly can win it all in this bracket. The main uncertainty is how he would fare against No. 1 Caleb Henson (Virginia Tech), who is the defending national champion. Van Ness should be able to take advantage of opponents who aren’t as familiar with his pace, leading to bonus point opportunities in the early rounds of this tournament.

Putting Van Ness seventh on this list isn’t really a slight towards him. Rather, it is a demonstration of the talent of Penn State wrestling this season. If you ranked him anywhere between fourth and eighth, I wouldn’t have much of an argument with it.

No. 6 Beau Bartlett (141)

Penn State wrestling 141-pounder Beau Bartlett. © Chris Eutsler / Basic Blues Nation, 2025.

Beau Bartlett is one of the hardest wrestlers to figure out in this Penn State wrestling lineup. He can beat anybody in the country, but his wrestling style also leaves him vulnerable to an upset. We saw this in the Big Ten Tournament when he gave up the early takedown to No. 6 Vance VomBaur (Minnesota) and then couldn’t get his offense going to get the win. If Bartlett scores a takedown early in a match, he is incredibly hard to beat. There are only a few wrestlers in the country who can take him down when he is in a defensive mindset.

While his loss dropped him to No. 2 in the rankings, Bartlett still has a good chance to win the title at 141 pounds. However, it would require avenging the loss to Vombaur in the quarterfinals and then beating No. 3 Jesse Mendez (Ohio State) in the semifinals. Brock Hardy (Nebraska) got the No. 1 seed in this bracket, someone Bartlett beat by an 8-7 decision in January.

Obviously, upsets could prevent that exact path from being there. Regardless, every Beau Bartlett match comes down to who gets the first takedown.

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No. 5 Levi Haines (174)

Levi Haines had about as good of a season as Penn State wrestling fans could have hoped for after making the jump from 157 to 174. Haines is 20-1 with a 61.90% bonus and just picked up his third Big Ten title in Evanston. His one loss was to No. 1 Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) by 4-1 in sudden victory. The match could have gone either way and certainly could flip in Haines’s favor at the NCAA Championships.

Haines is the most likely out of the non-No. 1 seeds in the Nittany Lions lineup to win a national championship. An interesting potential matchup before the NCAA Finals would be against No. 3 Dean Hamiti (Oklahoma State), who also only lost to O’Toole this year.

It is a three-wrestler race for the title at 174 pounds. If Penn State wrestling hopes to break the points record again this season, it will most likely need Haines to win it all.

No. 4 Luke Lilledahl (125)

Luke Lilledahl shocked the country by taking down undefeated No. 1 Matt Ramos (Purdue) in the Big Ten Semifinals on his way to the conference title. The win was the next step in his progression to becoming one of the elite 125-pounders in the country.

The Big Ten title victory gave Lilledahl a 20-2 record with a 63.64% bonus. He earned the No. 1 seed at 125 pounds and is one of the favorites to win it all. However, the 125-pound weight class has a lot of parity and is very unpredictable.

Even after earning the top seed, Lilledahl will have an uphill battle. He could see No. 9 Caleb Smith (Nebraska) in the quarterfinals, a wrestler he has beaten twice but in incredibly close matches. Last year’s NCAA Champion, No. 5 Richard Figueroa (Arizona State), could also be a future semifinal opponent.

I ranked Lilledahl at No. 4 on this list, mostly due to the depth of the weight class. His win over Ramos proves that he can beat anyone. For that reason, he is ranked ahead of a probable national champion like Levi Haines.

No. 3 Tyler Kasak (157)

Tyler Kasak seems to have continued his momentum from his third-place finish at 149 pounds last year into 2025. The sophomore has been nothing short of dominant since moving up to 157, winning the Big Ten title with an 18-1 record and a 52.63% bonus.

Kasak’s lone loss came after he had to take an injury default against No. 10 Ethen Miller (Maryland). As far as on the mat, Kasak has been perfect. During the Big Ten Tournament, he pinned No. 3 Antrell Taylor (Nebraska) in the quarterfinals and picked up a major decision over No. 5 Brandon Cannon (Ohio State) in the finals.

Kasak is one of the safer bets in the Penn State lineup to reach the NCAA Finals.  His top competitor, No. 2 Meyer Shapiro (Cornell), most likely won’t come until the championship match. Similar to Kasak, Shapiro’s only loss this season was also due to injury. The two wrestlers seem to be on a collision course, but I would give Kasak the slight edge strictly because of the strength of the Big Ten schedule over the Ivy League.

No. 2 Carter Starocci (184)

Carter Starocci will look to make history this year, becoming the first – and probably the last – wrestler to win five NCAA Division I Championships. Starocci is 21-0 this season and holds a 90.48% bonus.

Starocci is fresh off the Big Ten Finals, where he was taken down for the first time this season by No. 3 Max McEnelly (Minnesota) and had to get the sudden victory win over the freshman.

The most likely opponent for Starocci in the NCAA Finals will be No. 2 Parker Keckeisen (Northern Iowa). The two wrestlers met in the NWCA All-Star Classic in November, where Starocci defeated Keckeisen 4-1 in sudden victory.

Whether it ends up being McEnelly or Keckeisen, a run to the NCAA Finals seems imminent for Carter Starocci. He should be one of the Nittany Lions that Penn State wrestling can count on to score major points in this tournament.

No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (165)

Penn State wrestling 165-pounder Mitchell Mesenbrink. © Chris Eutsler / Basic Blues Nation, 2025.

It is hard to imagine that there is someone ahead of a four-time NCAA Champion, but Mitchell Mesenbrink has been even more dominant this season.

Mesenbrink is 22-0 with a 95.45% bonus and has picked up a tech fall in all but three matches. The sophomore enters this tournament with a 49-1 career record, his only loss being a 9-8 decision to David Carr in the 2024 NCAA Finals.

The recent 4-1 decision victory over No. 3 Mikey Caliendo (Iowa) in the Big Ten Final was his first non-bonus victory of the season. He is a step above everyone else in his weight class by a large margin, making him the favorite to bring home the NCAA title at 165 pounds.

The Big Ten Final was interesting because it was the first time Mesenbrink didn’t thoroughly dominate his opponent all year. While Caliendo didn’t take Mesenbrink down, he was in the match the entire way and was able to keep up with the Nittany Lion’s frantic pace. Earlier in the season, Mesenbrink picked up a 19-4 tech fall over Caliendo at the Bryce Jordan Center.

If the two wrestlers meet again in the NCAA Finals, it will be intriguing to see which result will be replicated. It is hard to imagine that Mesenbrink loses even if there is another close result.

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