Penn State wrestling has won 54 consecutive matches, most recently a 35-3 drumming of Rutgers in the annual BJC dual on Monday. The Nittany Lions‘ success this season has been due to perhaps one of the strongest lineups of the Cael Sanderson era, with national title contenders at nearly every weight class. But not everyone has been trending in the right direction. This week, Penn State wrestler Aaron Nagao fell out of the All-American projections for the first time this season.
Aaron Nagao plummets in the rankings
There were high expectations for Aaron Nagao when he transferred from Minnesota to Penn State last offseason. The redshirt sophomore was fresh off a fifth-place finish at the NCAA Tournament and was set to be the replacement for two-time national champion Roman Bravo-Young.
Nagao entered the year with a No. 3 preseason ranking at 133 pounds. While he certainly hasn’t wrestled poorly this season, the ranking has been steadily dropping as the year progresses. On Monday, Nagao dropped his fourth match of the season, upset by No. 10 Dylan Shawver of Rutgers.
The loss caused Aaron Nagao to fall from No. 6 to No. 11 in the latest InterMat Rankings at 133 pounds. The five-spot drop is the largest of the season for any Penn State wrestler. It also puts Nagao on the outside looking in to reach the podium in March, at least according to projections.
The top eight spots in the NCAA Tournament earn All-American status. So, if the tournament started today and these rankings were used, Aaron Nagao would have to pull an upset to earn All-American status. At this point, Nagao and true freshman Tyler Kasak are the only Penn State wrestling starters not to be in the top eight of their respective weight class. Kasak, however, has been on the rise, and could very well be within the top eight at 149 by the end of the year.
What expectations should Penn State wrestling have at 133 this season?
While the drop this week was disappointing, the sky isn’t falling. Aaron Nagao is a talented wrestler, and there is a reason he had so much success in both the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament last season. Some wrestlers just have a switch that they can flip when the lights are the brightest.
All four of Nagao’s losses have come to a wrestler ranked inside the top 10. He has fallen to No. 1 Ryan Crookham (Lehigh), No. 5 Dylan Ragusin (Michigan), No. 9 Dylan Shawver (Rutgers), and No. 10 Nic Bouzakis (Ohio State) so far this season.
None of his losses were ugly, either. Nagao lost to Crookham 6-4, was pinned by Ragusin in sudden victory after just missing a chance to win on a takedown attempt, lost to Bouzakis 13-10 after getting down 9-2 after one period, and lost in sudden victory to Shawver. The Nittany Lion certainly could have won all four if things had gone just slightly different.
Looking ahead, a National Championship probably isn’t in the cards for Aaron Nagao and Penn State wrestling at 133 this season. However, becoming an All-American should still be on the table, despite Nagao’s current ranking.
Aaron Nagao can beat anybody in the country when he is on; the key will just be how many solid performances he will string together when it matters the most.
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