PREVIEW: Penn State wrestling hosts Michigan for top-20 dual at the BJC

No. 1 Penn State wrestling will look to extend the program’s dual win streak to 67 when the Nittany Lions welcome the No. 19 Michigan Wolverines to the Bryce Jordan Center on Friday night. After dominating second-ranked Iowa a week ago, it doesn’t feel like any team can slow down Cael Sanderson and his Nittany Lions on their march for a fourth consecutive National Championship. 

How much should we expect Penn State to be pushed in Friday’s matchup?

Penn State vs. Michigan preview

Penn State enters with a 10-0 (4-0 Big Ten) record, while the Wolverines enter at 5-4 (2-4). While the Nittany Lions are fresh off their biggest win of the season, Michigan is trying to bounce back after a 25-14 loss to No. 4 Ohio State in Ann Arbor last Saturday.

Penn State wrestling leads the all-time series 36-24 and has won 13 straight against the Wolverines. The last meeting was a 29-7 Penn State victory at Michigan a year ago. When these two last met in State College, the Nittany Lions downed the Wolverines 30-8 at the Bryce Jordan Center.

Michigan enters Friday with eight of ten wrestlers ranked in the latest InterMat rankings. Meanwhile, all ten Penn State starters are ranked inside the top seven at their respective weight classes.

Match to watch

197: No. 4 Josh Barr 12-1 (PSU) vs No. 2 Jacob Cardenas 14-0 (MICH)

Josh Barr seems to be in a high-profile match every dual. Part of that is his high ranking, but also the uncertainty of whether or not he can compete with the top wrestlers in his weight class.

Last week, the star redshirt freshman suffered his first loss of the season, a 4-1 defeat to No. 1 Stephen Buchanan of Iowa. Similar to how Shayne Van Ness had a shot at redemption last week against Kyle Parco, Josh Barr will get his chance against another title contender: No. 2 Jacob Cardenas.

Barr has already knocked off several All-American-caliber opponents this season. Still, the question remains if he can beat national title contenders. Right now, it appears that the 197-pound title is a three-way race between Buchanan, Cardenas, and CSU Bakersfield’s AJ Ferrari.

Currently No. 4 in the latest InterMat rankings, Friday night will be another opportunity for Barr to ascend into the top tier of wrestlers at 197. Cardenas is undefeated but hasn’t faced a single top-ten opponent this year. A battle-tested Barr could use that to his advantage. Cardenas lost eight times en route to a fourth-place finish last season.

I predict Cardenas will win this match strictly based on experience and how he’s wrestled so far this season. But like Barr’s bout last week, this will most likely be a close decision, decided by a single takedown. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Barr pull the upset, but I think he’s still a bit away from breaking into tier one of the 197-pound weight class.

Projected Penn State vs Michigan wrestling lineups:

125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl 12-1 (PSU) vs Christian Tanefeu 7-7 (MICH)

133: No. 7 Braeden Davis 7-2 (PSU) vs Nolan Wertanen 5-11 (MICH)

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett 13-0 (PSU) vs No. 12 Sergio Lemley 13-6 (MICH)

149: No. 3 Shayne Van Ness 12-1 (PSU) vs No. 24 Dylan Gilcher 8-5/Cameron Catrabone 11-4 (MICH)

157: No. 1 Tyler Kasak 13-0 (PSU) vs No. 14 Chase Saldate 9-6 (MICH) 

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink 14-0 (PSU) vs No. 10 Beau Mantanona 9-2 (MICH)

174: No. 2 Levi Haines 12-1 (PSU) vs No. 29 Joseph Walker 11-6 (MICH)

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci 13-0 (PSU) vs No. 24 Jaden Bullock 8-10 (MICH)

197: No. 4 Josh Barr 12-1 (PSU) vs No. 2 Jacob Cardenas 14-0 (MICH)

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet 13-0 (PSU) vs No. 8 Josh Heindselman 17-1 (MICH)

Penn State vs. Michigan predictions:

125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (PSU) by tech fall

133: No. 7 Braeden Davis (PSU) by tech fall

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (PSU) by decision

149: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (PSU) by tech fall

157: No. 1 Tyler Kasak (PSU) by major decision

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) by tech fall

174: No. 2 Levi Haines (PSU) by major decision

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci (PSU) by fall

197: No. 2 Jacob Cardenas (MICH) by decision

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) by major decision

Final Score: No. 1 Penn State 41 – No. 19 Michigan 3

© Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After seeing what this Penn State wrestling lineup did to the No. 2 ranked team in the country last week, it isn’t outrageous to think this match could get out of hand. For me, the real question is whether the Nittany Lions will pick up their fifth shutout or break the 40-point mark for the seventh time this year.

The two matches I see coming down to decisions are 141 and 197 pounds. At 141, I think Beau Bartlett is the favorite. But Bartlett doesn’t seem to pick up bonus points against inferior opponents. Sergio Lemley has been good this season, with all six of his losses coming to top 10 opponents (four by decision).

The 197-pound matchup between Barr and Cardenas is the match of the dual. It could really go either way and will likely determine whether this one is a shutout, barring a shocking upset somewhere else on the card. No matter how it goes, I don’t see either wrestler picking up bonus points.

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I have 157, 184, and 285 finishing as major decisions for Penn State. Chase Saldate and Josh Heindselman are solid wrestlers who have really only lost to higher-ranked opponents this year. At 174, I have Levi Haines only picking up a major over No. 29 Joseph Walker. When diving into numbers, Walker doesn’t lose big often. He’s only suffered two major decisions this season, and all his other losses have been within three points.

I am confident Penn State wrestling will score over 40 points on Friday night. If the Nittany Lions sweep all ten matches, that is just about guaranteed. We will see if Cael Sanderson decides to put out his entire lineup with another dual against Maryland just two days away. If Sanderson decides to give a few starters a rest, it could be an opportunity for fans to witness the program’s future with a bench loaded with former top-ten recruits like Zack Ryder and the Mirasola twins.

How to watch?

Date: February 7, 2025

Time: 6:00 p.m. ET

TV: BTN

Location: Bryce Jordan Center

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