PREVIEW: Penn State wrestling opens as massive favorite over No. 3 Iowa

No. 1 Penn State wrestling (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) opens as a massive favorite over No. 3 Iowa (10-1, 5-1) for Friday night’s dual in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The road trip will be Penn State’s toughest test of the year, and the dual will be a proving ground for several young Nittany Lions to see if they are true national contenders this season. What should we expect from this highly-anticipated top 5 matchup?

Penn State wrestling vs Iowa preview

Cael Sanderson and Penn State head to Iowa City after another dominant 28-9 win this past Friday over No. 6 Ohio State at Rec Hall. No. 3 Iowa enters off a tough 24-11 road loss to No. 9 Michigan.

The Hawkeyes have dominated this series historically, holding a 28-12-2 record against the Nittany Lions all-time. However, in recent years, Penn State wrestling has begun to gain ground, winning the last two meetings and four of the last five. Penn State won last year’s meeting 23-14 in the Bryce Jordan Center. The last meeting in Carver-Hawkeye Arena resulted in a 19-13 Nittany Lion win.

The line for this dual currently has Penn State as a massive 21-point favorite over Iowa after opening at a sizeable 18 points. The Nittany Lions have a top-10 wrestler in every weight class. The Hawkeyes have a ranked wrestler in nine of the 10 matchups. The strength of the Iowa lineup is in the lighter weights, while Penn State will do most of its damage in the later bouts.

Match to watch

141: No. 1 Beau Bartlett 14-0 (PSU) vs No. 2 Real Woods 12-1 (IOWA)

This dual features a rematch from last season, in which Real Woods took down Beau Bartlett 4-1 at the Bryce Jordan Center. The two didn’t meet again in the postseason, but Bartlett made the Big Ten and NCAA semifinals. Woods won the Big Ten at 141 before losing in the NCAA finals.

Newly minted No. 1 Beau Bartlett enters with a 14-0 record and is fresh off a 4-1 sudden victory decision over No. 3 Jesse Mendez of Ohio State last Friday. Bartlett has a 50% bonus percentage and has used his patience and endurance in a lot of his wins.

Real Woods entered the season No. 1 at the weight class, but was stunned last week in a 14-2 major decision loss to then-No. 19 Sergio Lemley of Michigan. He was even almost pinned at the end of the bout. If the match had maybe five more seconds, the fall may have been granted. Woods dropped to 12-1 on the season and has a 46.15% bonus percentage.

The real question for this matchup is whether or not we actually get to see it. Bartlett now is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and is one of the few wrestlers who Cael Sanderson hasn’t rested this season. It may be the strategic play to rest Bartlett and get him ready for the postseason.

As a wrestling fan, obviously, most want to see the No. 1 versus No. 2 matchups. If it does happen, it will most definitely be one of the highlights of this dual. A coin flip in either direction could determine the outcome of a match we will likely see again in the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament finals.

Projected lineups

125: No. 2 Braeden Davis 14-0 (PSU) vs No. 7 Drake Ayala 17-3 (IOWA)

133: No. 6 Aaron Nagao 8-3 (PSU) vs No. 20 Cullan Schriever 8-2 (IOWA)

141: No. 1 Beau Bartlett 14-0 (PSU) vs No. 2 Real Woods 12-1 (IOWA)

149: No. 10 Tyler Kasak 11-1 (PSU) vs No. 12 Caleb Rathjen 12-3 (IOWA)

157: No. 1 Levi Haines 11-0 (PSU) vs No. 5 Jared Franek 18-2 (IOWA)

165: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink 15-0 (PSU) vs No. 6 Michael Caliendo 19-1 (IOWA)

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci 9-0 (PSU) vs No. 7 Patrick Kennedy 10-3 (IOWA)

184: No. 6 Bernie Truax 8-2 (PSU) vs Aidan Riggins 11-10/Gabe Arnold 11-0 (IOWA)

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks 10-0 (PSU) vs No. 11 Zach Glazier 19-0 (IOWA)

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet 9-0 (PSU) vs No. 29 Bradley Hill 15-5/ Ben Kueter 2-0 (IOWA)

Penn State vs Iowa predictions

125: No. 7 Drake Ayala (IOWA) by decision

133: No. 6 Aaron Nagao (PSU) by decision

141: No. 2 Real Woods (IOWA) by decision

149: No. 10 Tyler Kasak (PSU) by decision

157: No. 1 Levi Haines (PSU) by decision

165: No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) by decision

174: No. 1 Carter Starocci (PSU) by major

184: No. 6 Bernie Truax (PSU) by decision

197: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (PSU) by major

285: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) by tech fall

FINAL SCORE: No. 1 Penn State 28 – No. 3 Iowa 6

As with almost every Penn State wrestling dual this season, the Nittany Lions are heavy favorites. There is a chance that Penn State could win every single match and is currently favored in eight out of 10. This dual may end up being the tail of two halves, with Iowa having its best chances early.

If the dual starts at 125 pounds, that match may determine what kind of night we are in for. While Drake Ayala was the favorite heading into the season, Braeden Davis has been moving up the rankings with his undefeated record. A win by the Nittany Lions could drain some of the energy out of Carver-Hawkeye Arena and really turn the dual on its head.

I think there are four toss-up matches in this dual: 125, 141, 149, and 165 pounds. The 157 matchup between Levi Haines and Jared Franek could also be another one to keep an eye on and could be heavily influenced by how the first four bouts go.

An interesting twist that we will have to wait to see is if highly touted freshman Gabe Arnold is used in this dual. He is allowed to wrestle in five events and still keep his redshirt. With two opportunities remaining, this does seem like a good chance for him to wrestle.

Arnold called out Carter Starocci last season and would probably want to wrestle the three-time champ if given the opportunity. But it is more likely that he would get matched up against Bernie Truax at 184 pounds. If that is the case, that could move that to a toss-up as well.

Overall, there is just too much depth in the Penn State wrestling lineup. If Iowa wins the four toss-up matches and Arnold wrestles and beats Truax, I still think the Hawkeyes end up losing by two or three points. The chance that Iowa wins is about the same probability that Penn State gets the shutout. Take the Nittany Lions minus the 21 points.

How to watch?

Date: February 9, 2024

Time: 9:00 pm ET

TV: Big Ten Network (BTN)

Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena

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