PREVIEW: Penn State wrestling travels to No. 13 Illinois for Big Ten dual season finale

Penn State wrestling will head to Champaign on Sunday afternoon for its final Big Ten dual of the season against No. 13 Illinois. The Nittany Lions will look to extend their dual win streak to 70 and move into sole possession of the second-longest streak in NCAA Division 1 wrestling history. 

What should we expect from the Nittany Lions against the Fighting Illini on Sunday?

Penn State vs. Illinois preview

Penn State wrestling enters 13-0 (7-0 Big Ten) after clinching a share of the Big Ten dual title with a 27-13 win over No. 8 Ohio State on Friday night in Columbus. Illinois enters 9-3 (4-3), beating No. 27 Purdue 35-8 in its last dual on February 1.

Penn State leads the all-time series 10-9, including wins in the last eight meetings. The Nittany Lions won the previous meeting 23-10 in Rec Hall in 2020. The last meeting in Champaign was a 39-9 victory for Penn State in 2019.

The Nittany Lions will enter with all 10 starters in the top eight of the latest InterMat rankings. The Illini will enter the dual with nine of their ten wrestlers ranked, including two within the top 10.

Match to watch

© Peter Ackerman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

133: No. 8 Braeden Davis 8-2/Kyison Garcia 3-3 (PSU) vs No. 4 Lucas Byrd 14-1 (ILL)

Braeden Davis returned to the mat on Friday for the first time after missing three straight duals, picking up a gritty 8-5 win over No. 11 Nic Bouzakis (OSU). The victory pushed the Penn State sophomore to 8-2 on the season and was his second straight top-15 victory.

Davis will now face his second-highest-ranked opponent of the season on Sunday afternoon. Lucas Byrd currently ranks No. 4 in the country and holds a 14-1 record. His lone loss of the season came in a 4-2 decision to No. 3 Drake Ayala of Iowa. Similarly, Davis will be his second-highest-ranked opponent of the season.

The wrestlers have had similar results when facing common opponents. Both lost 4-2 decisions to Ayala, majored Kade Moore (MIZZOU), and won close decisions to the four other common opponents. In effect, this one is a tossup.

Byrd has certainly been great this season, and I would give him the edge with this dual being in his home building. This is a massive match that will have major implications on the Big Ten and NCAA seeding. If Davis hopes to earn a top seed at the NCAA Championships, this could be his last chance to pick up a quality win before the postseason.

Projected Penn State vs Illinois wrestling lineups:

125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl 14-2 (PSU) vs Caelan Riley 4-12 (ILL)

133: No. 8 Braeden Davis 8-2/Kyison Garcia 3-3 (PSU) vs No. 4 Lucas Byrd 14-1 (ILL)

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett 16-0 (PSU) vs No. 17 Danny Pucino 12-3 (ILL)

149: No. 2 Shayne Van Ness 15-1 (PSU) vs No. 14 Kannon Webster 11-4 (ILL)

157: No. 1 Tyler Kasak 14-1/Connor Pierce 7-3/David Evans 0-0/Joe Sealey 0-1 (PSU) vs No. 30 Jason Kraisser 10-5 (ILL)

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink 17-0 (PSU) vs No. 14 Braeden Scoles 13-2 (ILL)

174: No. 2 Levi Haines 15-1 (PSU) vs No. 23 Danny Braunagel 8-7 (ILL)

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci 16-0 (PSU) vs No. 12 Edmond Ruth 10-5 (ILL)

197: No. 3 Josh Barr 15-1 (PSU) vs No. 17 Zac Braunagel 11-4 (ILL)

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet 15-0/Cole Mirasola 6-1 (PSU) vs No. 10 Luke Luffman

Penn State vs. Illinois predictions:

125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (PSU) by fall

133: No. 4 Lucas Byrd (ILL) by decision

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (PSU) by decision

149: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (PSU) by tech fall

157: No. 1 Tyler Kasak 14-1/Connor Pierce 7-3/David Evans 0-0/Joe Sealey 0-1 (PSU) by decision

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) by tech fall

174: No. 2 Levi Haines (PSU) by major decision

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci (PSU) by major decision

197: No. 4 Josh Barr (PSU) by tech fall

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet/Cole Mirasola (PSU) by decision

Final Score: No. 1 Penn State 38 – No. 13 Illinois 3

This match will be the last chance for many Penn State wrestlers to add another ranked win to their resumes and begin to position themselves for the Big Ten and NCAA seeding.

It feels like the most Illinois can do in this match is win at 133, 157, and 285, but much of that depends on who starts for the Nittany Lions. Penn State wrestling should be favored at every weight class but 133 pounds if everyone was healthy. It’s unclear whether Tyler Kasak will be back in the lineup after the head injury sustained against Maryland. Greg Kerkvliet also missed the Ohio State match due to an illness.

I believe Byrd beats Davis, but all the other Nittany Lions secure wins. That includes whoever Cael Sanderson puts up at 157 against No. 30 Jason Kraisser. I’m unsure whether Cole Mirasola can win at heavyweight if he starts in place of Kerkvliet, but the freshman can certainly put up enough of a fight to get the upset.

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Regardless, my prediction is that Penn State wrestling approaches the 40-point total once again. The closest scenario I see in this one is a 27-10 Nittany Lions victory. If everyone starts, I predict a 41-3 win. Davis can certainly win at 133 pounds, but I lean toward the rankings and history to give Illinois that bout.

How to watch:

Date: February 16, 2025

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET

TV: BTN+

Location: Champaign, IL

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