Can James Franklin move the Penn State football program to elite?

James Franklin has recruited well, but not to the elite level that the Penn State football team needs if they hope to ever win another national championship. Since taking over as the Nittany Lions head coach, Franklin has consistently kept Penn State within the 12-16 range of the recruiting rankings. Outside of a few outlier years, he seems to get just enough talent to be recognized on the national level but not enough to beat the top teams.

When other teams within the Big Ten like Ohio State and now Oregon are pulling in consistent top 10 and top 5 classes, it is hard to expect Penn State to be able to compete with the talent disparity. That isn’t to excuse Franklin for his lack of success against top-10 teams, but it is another layer that fans need to look at.

Penn State has two top-10 recruiting classes under James Franklin. The first came in 2018 when the Nittany Lions finished 6^th overall and 2^nd in the Big Ten. The second was in 2022 where Franklin pulled in the 8^th overall class and once again was 2^nd in the Big Ten behind Ohio State.

Yet neither of those carried enough momentum into the next recruiting cycle to pull in back-to-back top 10 classes. While this may seem inconsequential, when you are talking about building enough depth across all positions, it is critical for a national championship-contending team.

The top 15 classes are solid and will get you to a New Year’s Six Bowl, or now the College Football Playoff, but it won’t put you in contention for the National Championship. It comes down to the goal that the administration and fanbase are hoping for. Do they want to win national championships or are they simply happy being nationally relevant and selling out the stadium?

Blue Chip Ratio

Bud Elliot of CBS Sports introduced the Blue-Chip Ratio a few years ago which considers what percentage of your roster consists of 4 and 5-star players also known as blue-chip recruits. He determined that a team must be made up of at least 50% of these recruits if they hope to have a shot at winning a national championship.

Penn State has been on the list of 15 to 20 teams in the past 5+ years that have a roster talented enough to win a national title. That doesn’t necessarily mean that fans should expect it because of those numbers, some teams like Georgia have blue chip ratios in the 70%+ while others like Penn State football are more in the 50-55% area.

Winning a national title in their current range while possible would be difficult. Penn State would still need to get a favorable schedule, hit on all of their prospects and develop them, and have injury luck. All the blue-chip ratio is saying is that they have a chance but that doesn’t mean it would be easy.

Looking at future recruiting classes

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State has been struggling to land a few top-level recruits from its normal footprint for the 2025 class. Franklin has struggled to pick up multiple legacy prospects in the cycle and what once looked promising now looks like any other year. The class currently sits at No. 10 in the latest rankings by 247Sports but when you take into account the average player ranking the Nittany Lions fall to No. 15 on the list. A ranking that has been typical for the program.

The 2026 class has started much better with 4-star running back Messiah Mickens and four-star quarterback Troy Huhn leading the way. It appears early on that James Franklin and Penn State will be able to move the 2026 class toward that top 10 level.

It is unclear how much NIL has to do with the recent lack of success. It is no secret that Penn State has been slightly behind the rest of the country on that front and is pushing for donations these past few months to the collective. That is something that won’t be fixed overnight unless a big donor comes and springboards the program like what we have seen at a few other schools.

A lot of this can be fixed through success on the field. If Penn State finishes 10-2 or better and makes the College Football Playoff that would be big for recruiting. If the Nittany Lions can win the Big Ten or host a home playoff game that also would exponentially help the program. But for now, all Penn State football fans can do is just wait and see, if another year falls just short, or will James Franklin finally take that next step.

Thank you for reading Basic Blues Nation! Please follow us on all of our social channels (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube) and subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news and insights on your favorite Penn State athletics. For feedback, questions, concerns, or to apply for a writing position, please email us at [email protected] or direct message us on our social media.