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Penn State football: Orange Bowl odds, injury report, & predictions

Penn State football enters the Orange Bowl as an underdog for only the third time this season. Can the Nittany Lions find a way to beat the spread and topple Notre Dame?

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Penn State football
Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin yells out to his team as they play the Boise State Broncos during their Vrbo Fiesta Bowl matchup at State Farm Stadium on Dec. 31, 2024. © Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State football took down Boise State 31-14 on New Year’s Eve to advance to the program’s first-ever CFP Semifinal.

The Nittany Lions’ opponent is another blue blood, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who defeated the SEC Champion Georgia Bulldogs 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl on Thursday evening. It will be the first time the two historic programs have met since 2007. This time, the stakes will be even higher with a National Championship berth on the line. What do you need to know ahead of this epic Orange Bowl matchup?

Injury Report

Penn State:

Penn State football players out indefinitely with “significant” or “long-term” injuries:

  • KJ Winston, S
  • Andrew Rappleyea, TE
  • Keon Wylie, LB
  • Zuriah Fisher, DE
  • Cam Wallace, RB
  • Alonzo Ford, DT
  • Anthony Donkoh, OT

Penn State football did not submit an availability report prior to the Fiesta Bowl, citing a competitive advantage. The Nittany Lions likely will not produce one again this week ahead of Thursday night’s matchup.

“What happened the week before is SMU did not do one, and we did,” James Franklin said of the report on Saturday. “So until this is a consistent mandate across college football, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for us to do one when they are not.”

But with a report or without, the name that everyone will have their eyes on is Abdul Carter. The star Nittany Lions edge rusher is still to be determined after leaving last week’s Fiesta Bowl in the first half.

Betting Odds (all via DraftKings Sportsbook):

Spread: Penn State (+2.5) vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame opened as a 1.5-point favorite against Penn State after the win over Georgia.

This will only be the third time the Nittany Lions enter as an underdog. In the previous two games, Penn State was received three points to Ohio State at home and the same to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. Penn State lost by one score in both matchups but did not cover the spread. Penn State football is 8-7 against the spread this season, while Notre Dame is 12-2.

Moneyline: Penn State football +120

Placing a $100 bet on Penn State to beat Notre Dame would pay $120. This will be the first matchup between the two schools since 2007 when Penn State defeated Notre Dame 31-10 in front of the first all-stadium White Out at Beaver Stadium.

The series is knotted up all-time at 9-9-1, with the Nittany Lions winning three of the last five. Penn State and Notre Dame met every season from 1981 to 1992 on a home-and-home basis, with the Nittany Lions holding an 8-4 advantage in those games.

The two sides have only met once in a bowl game, where the Irish took down the Nittany Lions 20-9 in the 1976 Gator Bowl. 

Game total: over/under 45.5

The total has gone under in nine of Penn State’s 15 games this season. Notre Dame has gone 7-7 against the total this season.

Penn State has gone over this total in six of its last 10 games. Notre Dame has gone over this total in seven of its last 10 games. 

Penn State vs. Notre Dame Game Predictions: (15-11)

Penn State football

© Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State football will enter uncharted waters for the first time this playoff, entering as an underdog to Notre Dame.

James Franklin has historically won the games he should have won and lost the ones he shouldn’t have. We have already seen it this year with two one-score losses to Ohio State and Oregon. With the Irish currently a slight 2.5-point favorite, this game is about as close to even as we have seen in Franklin’s tenure in Happy Valley.

Penn State will need to find a way to move the ball consistently against one of the best defenses it has faced all season. Notre Dame compares to Ohio State defensively, which may not be promising as Drew Allar and company couldn’t score an offensive touchdown in that game.

However, what is promising for the Nittany Lions is how much the run game has picked up steam in December. Led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, the Nittany Lions rushed for 216 yards against Boise State, 189 yards against SMU, and 297 yards against Oregon. Running for an average of 200 yards per game has taken some of the pressure off Allar and the passing game, helping to hide the deficiency at wide receiver. If Penn State wants to win this game, it will need a similar rushing performance to put the offense in third-and-short situations and not let the talented Notre Dame defensive line get after Allar.

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But the most important player of the game is Abdul Carter. The defense certainly missed the junior’s presence in the second half against Boise State. If Penn State expects to slow down Irish quarterback Riley Leonard and the dominant Notre Dame rushing attack, they will need Carter back. The future first-round pick not only produces himself, but draws enough attention to give his teammates a free lane to the backfield.

Obviously, there is a history of Penn State football not winning these types of games when entering as an underdog. However, I think the spread is small enough that it should be viewed more as a pick ’em. I think Penn State will pull off the win and head to the National Championship game for the first time ever in the BCS/CFP era.

The game will come down to Ryan Barker making a few field goals, but if the Nittany Lions take care of the football, I think they will win. I think the lean should be to take the over in this one as well, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the game ends up being a defensive slugfest.

Prediction: Penn State 26 – Notre Dame 24

CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl (7-6)

No. 8 Ohio State (-5.5) vs No. 5 Texas, Friday (1/10), 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Ohio State shocked the world and dominated the No. 1 Oregon Ducks 41-21 in last week’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes jumped out to a 34-0 first-half lead and never looked back, and are now the odds-on favorites to win the National Championship.

I am not sure what was awoken inside Ryan Day and Chip Kelly, but they seem to remember that they have the nation’s top wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith and have used him accordingly in the first two rounds of the CFP.

Texas needed a 4th-and-13 conversion and double overtime to fight off a scrappy Arizona State squad in the Peach Bowl. The Longhorns offense was stagnant for most of the game and is a real cause for concern when having to face possibly the best defense left in the bracket.

This line opened at 5.5 points in favor of Ohio State. I wouldn’t blink taking anything up to seven points. I would still feel comfortable taking anything up to 10 points because I think the Buckeyes roll to the title game.



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Former contributor at Nittany Central, Patrick joined Basic Blues Nation in 2023 as the Social Media Director, Penn State Wrestling beat writer, and producer of the Penn State Roar Room spaces. Patrick is also a contributor of Penn State football, basketball, and ice hockey news for the site.

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