Penn State basketball enters pivotal week for postseason hopes

Penn State basketball has had an up-and-down start to the 2023-24 season under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades. There have been some inexcusable losses, like the game against Bucknell, as well as shocking wins, like the home victory over Ohio State. As conference play kicks into full swing this week, the Nittany Lions currently sit on the outside looking in on postseason play. But this week’s games will be critical for Rhoades and the Lions to gain momentum for the rest of the season.

Mixed results for Mike Rhoades, Penn State basketball to start season

Penn State basketball had a mixed bag of results during the first two months of the season. The Nittany Lions opened the year with a 4-0 start, beating up on a bunch of smaller schools. They then traveled down to Florida to participate in the ESPN Invitational. After a hard-fought loss to then-No. 12 Texas A&M 89-77,  Penn State followed it up with losses to Butler and VCU.

Perhaps the worst loss of the season followed the tournament when Penn State fell to Bucknell at home 76-67. It was the first time since KenPom was created in 1999 that the Nittany Lions had lost to a team ranked 300^th or worse.

The loss tanked Penn State basketball in the initial NET Rankings, where they entered at 170. Penn State followed it up with a tough overtime loss on the road to Maryland 81-75.

The next game looked like Mike Rhoades and the Nittany Lions were in danger of the season collapsing, as they were down 18 in the second half against Ohio State. An incredible comeback by Penn State resulted in an 83-80 win and brought the program’s record back to 5-5.

The next game against Georgia Tech resulted in an 82-81 overtime loss that ended on a controversial foul call that cost the Nittany Lions the game. After two easy wins against Le Moyne and Rider, Penn State basketball finds itself with a 7-6 (1-1) record heading into the main part of conference play.

Outside looking in on the postseason

The Nittany Lions enter the first week of January ranked 115 in the NET Rankings, the metric that the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to determine bids and seeding. It is the highest that Penn State basketball has been all season. That ranking is currently last in the Big Ten, so there will be plenty of opportunities to move up.

The expectation this season wasn’t to necessarily make the NCAA Tournament, given the coaching change and roster turnover. However, the new NIT selection rules could still be something Penn State can reach in year one of the Mike Rhoades era. The new rules dictate that the conference regular season champions who don’t win the conference tournament will no longer receive auto bids. These would typically go to one-bid leagues that had their No. 1 seed upset in the conference tournament.

Instead, the NIT will now guarantee two teams based on NET rankings from the Power 6 conferences, regardless of record, and guarantee the ability to host a first-round game. The next 20 teams are at large bids, which would almost certainly use the NET as a criterion as well.

The new rules could benefit Penn State basketball in that there won’t be lower-ranked teams in the tournament just to fill auto-bid spots. As it currently stands, the Big Ten has around 6 teams in the NCAA Tournament, according to Dratings.com’s projection on December 27th. There are then 6 projected bids for the NIT, with only Minnesota and Penn State not making the field.

This week is crucial for Nittany Lions’ postseason hopes

This week will be a massive opportunity for Penn State basketball to make a jump in both the NET rankings and Big Ten standings. The Nittany Lions first travel to East Lansing to take on Michigan State on Thursday. The Spartans are 8-5 (0-2) but are ranked 29^th in the NET because of a difficult non-conference schedule. This game will be a Quad 1 opportunity, and a win would propel Penn State up the rankings.

The second game is on Sunday against Michigan at the Palestra in Philadelphia. The Wolverines have had an up-and-down season like the Nittany Lions and currently hold a 6-7 (1-1) record with a NET ranking of 79. This game is a Quad 2 game, but it will be one of the matchups that will determine whether Penn State is more of a middle of the conference or bottom feeder this season.

Penn State has had success in the Palestra in previous seasons, and most likely, it will be the best home-court advantage the team will experience this year.

Realistically Penn State will be heavy underdogs at Michigan State, but the game at the Palestra is certainly a winnable one and probably the one that the Nittany Lions need the most. A split this week would be a success, but going 0-2 will really put the Nittany Lions behind the eight ball in conference play heading forward.

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