Will James Franklin and Penn State football respond well after the bye week?

Penn State football will come off its bye week feeling good. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 3 in the latest AP poll and have a 6-0 record heading into Madison to take on Wisconsin.

The bye week can be an interesting discussion point for many fans. Some coaches like Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs have an excellent ability to get his team prepared despite the week off. Reid holds the best record in NFL history with a 22-4 (.846) record in regular season games.

So, what is James Franklin’s record off the bye in his time at Penn State? I dove into the numbers with a tough road game on the docket for this weekend.

James Franklin’s overall record off a bye while at Penn State

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State fans have grumbled that Franklin tends to struggle off the bye, and the overall record would take that side of the argument. The Nittany Lions are 5-7 off the bye since Franklin took over as head coach in 2014.

However, if you eliminate non-Big Ten games against Kent State (56-0) this season and UMass (63-0) last season, that record drops to 3-7 in conference play. The conference games are typically more indicative of the trend because they show what happens how teams of somewhat similar talent levels perform against Penn State.

Road games off a bye

Only four of the 12 games off a bye have been on the road since 2014. Penn State is 1-3 in those games, with losses at Michigan in 2022 (41-17) and 2014 (18-13), as well as Minnesota in 2019.

The lone win came in 2019 when the Nittany Lions stomped Maryland 59-0 during a Friday night game early in that season. So, while the record is a losing one, it isn’t enough to exactly point to a trend. One of the games was against Michigan in a tough environment while Penn State was still dealing with sanctions. However, it is still something to monitor as Penn State travels on the road to take on Wisconsin this weekend.

Teams with winning records off a bye

Penn State football faced eight teams with winning records of the 12 games off bye weeks since 2014. Take out winless Kent State and UMass from the past two seasons, and that means that 80% of the games featured a team with a winning record. Only two of the 10 games were before the six-game mark in the season, so many of these teams had established whether they were good or not before that point in the year.

James Franklin is 3-5 against teams with winning records coming off a bye week. Eliminate the early game against Maryland in 2019, which was just three weeks into the season, and that record drops to 2-5.

Could this just be a Michigan and Ohio State issue for Penn State?

Out of the 12 games that Penn State has played after a bye since 2014, half have been against Michigan or Ohio State. James Franklin is 2-4 in those games, but three of those matchups took place in 2014 and 2015.

Overall, this is a large sample size and one where Penn State wouldn’t have the talent advantage. Four of those games being at home, though, doesn’t look good on Franklin’s resume.

Favored off a bye

Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Penn State football has been favored in seven of its 12 games off a bye in the James Franklin era. All seven of those have come in the past eight games with the lone exception being in 2022 on the road against a top 10 Michigan team.

In those seven games, the Nittany Lions hold a 4-3 record, 2-3 if adjusted for only Big Ten opponents. That is not exactly what many fans want to hear with Penn State being around a 6.5-point favorite heading into Camp Randall Stadium this weekend. That record isn’t to cover the spread…but to outright win the game.

I am sure most fans remember the last time Penn State had to travel on the road one week before playing Ohio State, a cold 31-26 loss at Minnesota in 2019. Now this isn’t to say that the 5-2 Wisconsin team is the same as the undefeated and ranked Minnesota, but it is one of those potential look-ahead spots before the biggest regular season game of the season for Penn State.

The verdict

Almost every conceivable metric states that James Franklin doesn’t perform well off a bye. Franklin has a 30% win percentage overall against Big Ten opponents, a 25% win percentage on the road, a 37.5% win percentage against teams with winning records, and a 40% win percentage when favored. None of those numbers should give fans confidence when the team heads to Madison this weekend.

Now every team is different and the schedules certainly play a role, but Franklin has lost to 2-5 Illinois and 3-2 Michigan State at home in seasons where the Nittany Lions were ranked inside the top 10 of the AP Poll. So, this isn’t a situation where Penn State has only lost to top-ranked teams.

Many would think with two weeks to prepare, the team would have more success. But sometimes the rhythm of going through every week the same and having the same schedule is beneficial for a program. Not playing on a Saturday may be good for healing and recovering from injuries, but takes the players out of their routine. It is up to the coaching staff to get their players ready to go and prepared for the game even after having an out-of-the-ordinary schedule the week prior.

This weekend will be a big test for Franklin as he has the vastly more talented team. But once again, he will be facing not just Wisconsin, but the bye week as well.

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