Penn State wrestling: Which Nittany Lions are most likely to win at NCAA Championships?

Penn State wrestling will be looking to win its 11th national title in 13 seasons under Cael Sanderson when the NCAA Championships kick off this Thursday. The Nittany Lions have plenty of top ranked wrestlers who will be looking to make deep runs for individual titles. Which Penn State wrestlers have the best chance to win a national championship?

Penn State wrestling: Which Nittany Lions have the best chance to win at NCAA Championships?

Coming off a historic conference tournament last weekend, Penn State wrestling now looks to make a push for another national title. As expected, there are multiple Nittany Lions in prime position to win individual crowns at the NCAA Championships this week, with four wrestlers claiming the top seed in their weight class.

But which are the most likely to win titles? We’ve ranked all 10 Penn State wrestlers on the likelihood of bringing back the top prize from Kansas City to Happy Valley.

No. 10 Aaron Nagao (133)

Aaron Nagao earned a No. 10 seed in this year’s NCAA Championships. The sophomore finished the season 14-5 with a 63.16% bonus percentage. Nagao is 4-5 against other wrestlers in the bracket. He will take on No. 23 Marlon Yarbrough of Virginia in the first round.

Nagao has had an up-and-down season after transferring to Penn State from Minnesota in the offseason. However, all five of his losses have come to wrestlers in the field. He should be favored over Yarbrough in the first round, but then will most likely run into No. 2 Ryan Crookham of Lehigh in the second. Crookham defeated Nagao by a 6-4 decision in a dual back in early December.

An upset over Crookham wouldn’t be too crazy, but it doesn’t seem likely that Nagao will be able to make it through the rest of this bracket. As we saw last year, when he finished fifth at Nationals, and this year, when he was able to capture third in the Big Ten Championships, Nagao should make some noise in wrestlebacks to finish as an All-American.

No. 9 Tyler Kasak (149)

Tyler Kasak earned the No. 7 seed in this year’s NCAA Championships. The true freshman finished the season 17-4 with a 38.10% bonus percentage. Kasak is 7-3 against other wrestlers in the 149-pound bracket. His opening-round matchup will be against No. 26 Jaden Abas of Stanford.

Kasak has been a pleasant surprise this season, filling in for Shayne Van Ness at 149, who went down with a season-ending injury early. The expectations were rather low for the freshman, and almost nobody saw him making this run. After finishing third at the Big Tens, Kasak will now need to find another gear for the difficulty of the NCAA Championships.

It is hard to expect a true freshman to win the national title, let alone when he is wrestling up in a weight class that isn’t his natural one. Kasak currently sits on the All-American bubble, based off of the NCAA’s seeding. A run to the semifinals would be a success for the freshman, but anything short of All-American would feel like a disappointment.

No. 8 Bernie Truax (184)

Bernie Truax comes into Nationals as the No. 6 seed at 184. The graduate transfer finished the season with a 14-4 record and a 44.44% bonus percentage. Truax is 5-4 against the field in this year’s bracket. His first-round opponent will be No. 27 Cameron Pine of Clarion.

Truax has been solid this year, but hasn’t taken the next step like many anticipated he would for Penn State wrestling. The senior had previously finished fourth in the NCAA Championships at Cal Poly the past three seasons. One sign of promise, though, is that Truax has been in every single match that he has lost this season.

It will be a difficult path to win that national title for Truax. He would have to face multiple top wrestlers, including a potential rematch against Isaiah Salazar of Minnesota in the semifinals. While unlikely, the talent is still there for Truax to make a run. Anything short of All-American by the senior would be unexpected.

No. 7 Braeden Davis (125)

The freshly minted top seed at 125 pounds, Braeden Davis finished the year 20-2 with a 45.45% bonus percentage. The true freshman has a 9-2 record against the field heading into the tournament. Davis will face the winner of No. 32 Mike Joyce of Brown and No. 33 Tristan Lujan of Michigan State in the opening round.

Davis shocked the world after making a run to the Big Ten title as a six seed. The true freshman proved why 125 pounds is the most unpredictable weight class this year. But what helped him win the Big Ten is also what he needs to watch for at Nationals.

The field is absolutely loaded, and you can argue that anybody inside the top 16 to go on a run and make the finals. For instance, No. 16 Dean Peterson, whom Davis defeated in sudden victory, could be a potential second-round matchup. While Davis certainly can win it all, the reason he is seventh on this list is mostly due to the parity at 125 pounds.

No. 6 Beau Bartlett (141)

Beau Bartlett earned a No. 2 seed in this year’s NCAA Championships. The senior finished the season with a 20-1 record and a 38.10% bonus percentage. Bartlett is 12-1 against the field, with his lone loss coming to No. 1 seed Jesse Mendez in the Big Ten finals. He will face No. 31 Kai Owen of Columbia in the first round.

There is no doubt that Bartlett possesses the tools to win the title at 141. In fact, he will be a heavy favorite to make it to at least the semifinals, and possibly, the finals. All season, it has appeared that Jesse Mendez, Real Woods, and Beau Bartlett were the three top wrestlers in the weight class regardless of order.

A rematch with both Woods and Mendez is likely in the semifinals and finals if seeding holds. Since Bartlett is a defensive wrestler, he often has close matches. The semifinals should be the floor for Bartlett, but the reason he isn’t higher on this list is more to do with the dominance of his teammates and their undefeated records, rather than his own weaknesses.

No. 5 Mitchell Mesenbrink (165)

Mitchell Mesenbrink has earned a No. 2 seed in this year’s NCAA Championships at 165 pounds. The freshman enters the tournament with a  22-0 record and a 72.73% bonus percentage. Mesenbrink is 10-0 versus the field in his bracket. He will face No. 31 Maxx Mayfield of Northwestern in the first round.

Mesenbrink has been one of the most electric wrestlers in the country this year, and that was exemplified by his come-from-behind victory in the Big Ten finals over Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin. All season, many experts have placed him in a category with Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) and David Carr (Iowa State) as the top tier of 165 pounds.

He got a great draw in this bracket, with O’Toole, Carr, and Hamiti ending up on the other side. The highest seeds on his side include Julian Ramirez (Cornell) and Mike Caliendo (Iowa). Mesenbrink has already beaten Caliendo in dominant fashion this season, so it really would come down to how he does against Ramirez.

The floor for the redshirt freshman should be the semifinals, as anything less would be a major upset. Realistically, we should see Mesenbrink in the finals, against likely O’Toole. The two are the only remaining undefeated wrestlers in the bracket. If that is the final, who wins could be a toss-up, but don’t be surprised if Mesenbrink picks up plenty of bonus points for Penn State wrestling along the way.

No. 4 Levi Haines (157)

Levi Haines earned 157’s top seed in this year’s NCAA Championships. The sophomore enters with an 18-0 record and a 61.11% bonus percentage. He is 10-0 against the field and the heavy favorite after winning the Big Ten title. Haines will face the winner of No. 32 Isaac Wilcox of Ohio State and No. 33 Nick Stampolous of Buffalo in the first round.

Haines has been dominant this season and is looking to build on a runner-up finish at Nationals last year. The preseason No. 1, he has beaten everyone in front of him and locked up the top seed. The only close match of note was against Chase Saldate of Michigan State, who is seeded 24^th in the bracket.

Realistically, anything short of a title would probably feel like a disappointment. While last season’s runner-up finish was a solid run, this feels like the year for Levi Haines. No other wrestler at 157 pounds has less than two losses, and the title is his to lose. You can make an argument that he should be higher on this list, and it would be a rational one. The only thing holding Haines back is the fact that he hasn’t won a national title yet, like a few of his teammates.

No. 3 Greg Kerkvliet (285)

Greg Kerkvliet earned a No. 1 seed at heavyweight for this year’s NCAA Championships. The senior enters with an undefeated 15-0 record and a 73.33% bonus percentage. He is 10-0 versus the field and fresh off a Big Ten title. Kerkvliet will face the winner of No. 32 Nick Willham of Indiana and No. 33 Jordan Greer of Ohio in the first round.

Kerkvliet has been just about perfect this season. He gave up only one takedown all year, and it was to Nick Feldman in the Big Ten finals — a match that he would end up winning with ease when it was all finished. Kerkvliet has been one of the most dominant heavyweights that Penn State wrestling has had under Cael Sanderson. It has felt all season that this was the big man’s chance to finally put it together with all of the defending champions graduated.

Despite his dominance, he isn’t higher on the list because there is another undefeated wrestler in the bracket. No. 2 Yonger Bastida of Iowa State is 24-0 and had just as good a season. Kerkvliet hasn’t won a title yet, but he is the clear favorite this year, and a runner-up finish is probably his floor.

No. 2 Carter Starocci (174)

A No. 9 seed at the NCAA Championships, Carter Starocci is 12-2 on the season, with his two losses coming as injury defaults in the Big Ten Championships. He has a 71.43% bonus percentage and is 3-2 versus the field. Starocci will face No. 24 Andrew Sparks of Minnesota in the first round.

The drama surrounding Starocci’s injury has been the talk of the wrestling community for weeks. There was much debate on whether or not he would be able to go for the tournament. In a more shocking turn, the three-time defending National Champion was heavily punished by his injury default losses and given a nine-seed.

Starocci is still, without question, the heavy favorite to win the 174-pound title for the fourth consecutive season. The only reason he isn’t No. 1 on this list is that we still don’t know how much the injury will affect him on the mat. While a less-than-healthy Starocci can probably still roll through the bracket, there are still some questions. Anything less than a national title would be a shocker, though, and bonus points for Penn State wrestling are highly likely.

No. 1 Aaron Brooks (197)

Aaron Brooks earned the No. 1 seed at 197 for the 2024 NCAA Championships. The senior finished with a 17-0 record and a 94.12% bonus percentage. He is 9-0 versus the field and should be about as close to a lock as you can get in this tournament. Brooks will face the winner of No. 32 John Crawford of Franklin and Marshall and No. 33 Evan Bates of Northwestern in the first round.

Brooks is at the top of the list because of his dominance this season. He had only one match where he didn’t pick up bonus points, a 5-0 win over Zach Glazier of Iowa. When the two rematched in the Big Ten finals, Brooks picked up a dominant 19-3 technical fall win.

His top opponent will be fellow undefeated Trent Hilday of NC State, a wrestler that Brooks has beaten once in the NCAA finals and twice in the NCAA semifinals at 184 pounds. This year, Brooks has been on a different level, and should be a wrestler that not only can win the title, but pick up a bunch of bonus points for Penn State wrestling along the way.

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