Penn State wrestling vying to break its own NCAA record in 2025

In less than a month, Cael Sanderson will begin his quest for a fourth consecutive National Championship for the third time in his tenure as the head coach of the Penn State wrestling program. The Nittany Lions are fresh off a record-breaking NCAA Championships in March, setting historic new margins for total points (172.5) and winning margin (100 points).

But one notable wrestling podcast host believes that Sanderson’s squad has a chance to topple its own record one year after writing it into the history books. In a recent episode of the FloWrestling Radio Live podcast, Christian Pyles gave a class-by-class breakdown of the Nittany Lions lineup for the upcoming season.

If the pieces all fall into place for Cael Sanderson, Pyles believes Penn State wrestling could hold steady or potentially improve upon its own total points record from the 2024 NCAA Championships.

Penn State should see improvements at the lightweights

One of the biggest improvements that many expect to see from Penn State wrestling this season is at the lightweights of 125 and 133 pounds.

“When you look at the basically negligible production they got at the lightweights last year [at Nationals]: five points between Braeden Davis and Aaron Nagao. I would expect that to improve,” Pyles said. “If Luke [Lilledahl] gets fifth and scores ten points and Braeden Davis gets sixth and scores eight, that puts them within striking distance [of the record].”

Luke Lilledahl is the nation’s No.1 overall recruit for the 2024 class and is expected to have an immediate impact in the lineup for Cael Sanderson. Lilledahl isn’t ranked in the InterMat preseason rankings because he hasn’t wrestled a match yet at the NCAA level. Many believe he could be a contender to win the National Championship at 125 in 2025.

Braeden Davis has moved to 133 pounds and will compete with Aaron Nagao for the starting spot. Nagao had a down season in 2024, seeming to be dealing with a nagging injury all year. Whoever wins the starting spot will have a great opportunity to increase the team’s point total.

Consistency at 141, 149, 165, and 285

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Pyles expects similar production at 141 and 149 pounds compared to 2024, with Beau Bartlett and Shayne Van Ness returning to take the starting jobs at each of those spots.

Bartlett was one period away from winning the National Championship at 141 pounds last season. Pyles thinks Bartlett can win it all this year because of how close he came last spring.

“Beau Bartlett can win NCAAs, guys. He was on the match-winning double leg against a guy he already beat, and the dude hit the move of the year, of the whole tournament, to win NCAAs,” he said. “Like, he can win. Shayne Van Ness can win.”

Van Ness suffered a season-ending injury last December after finishing third at the NCAAs in 2023.

At 165 pounds, Mitchell Mesenbrink had an incredible run to the NCAA Final, where he ultimately fell to David Carr 9-8 to finish the 2024 season 26-1. The now-redshirt sophomore finished with a 70.37% bonus percentage and is expected to be even more dominant in 2025.

Pyles expects increased production from Mesenbrink, stating, “Mitchell is going to score more points [this season]” when reviewing the Penn State lineup.

The FloWrestling host had similar thoughts about heavyweight Greg Kerkvliet, who finally broke through last season to win his first National Championship to cap off an undefeated 20-0 season. Kerkvliet had a 70% bonus percentage and was the undisputed No. 1 wrestler in the country from the preseason through to the finals.

Once again ranked preseason No. 1, Kerkvliet should be expected to repeat his performance in 2025. The only difference will be if he can pick up any extra bonus points in the tournament.

Most likely a drop at 157

Levi Haines has moved up to 174 pounds, leaving an opening for Tyler Kasak, who is taking over from the 149-pound slot in 2024.

Kasak originally started at 141 pounds heading into last year, but after Van Ness’ injury, he filled in the starting role and had an excellent season. The true freshman went 24-5 and battled back from a first-round loss in the NCAA Championships to finish third.

“[At] 157 [pounds], obviously they are going to go down a little bit with losing Levi Haines. But they are going to be really good there,” Pyles expressed.

Pyles gives the impression that, while Kasak will be a downgrade from the national title-winning Haines, he still thinks the production will be solid. That is, of course, unless Kasak wins his own title at the weight class, which isn’t too outlandish considering he is ranked No. 5 in the preseason InterMat rankings.

Starocci moving could help both 174 and 184

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Carter Starocci will look to be the first five-time NCAA Champion in history when he takes the mat at 184 pounds this season. His four national titles had previously come at 174 pounds, and the move to 184 opened the door for 157-pound champion Levi Haines to take his place.

But Pyles thinks there’s a chance the move will help Penn State wrestling actually gain points at the NCAA Championships in the spring.

“This is crazy; I think they are going to score more points at 174 this year than they did last year,” he stated. “Carter won, but he didn’t score any bonus points because he was wrestling on one leg. I think Levi – win or lose – even if he gets second, Levi is going to score more than 20 points.”

Bernie Truax placed fifth at the NCAAs last season, so it is reasonable to expect Starocci to score significantly more points this season.

“184, they are going to score way more points because Carter is going up there,” Pyles continued. “If he scores 20, no bonus, that is a huge upgrade because they didn’t score that many there last year.”

The 20 points given for winning the National Championship don’t take into account bonus points acquired along the way, something that Starocci should be able to take advantage of compared to Truax a year ago.

Biggest question mark for Penn State wrestling comes at 197

Anytime you lose a four-time NCAA Champion, there will always be a massive void in the lineup. That includes even teams as dominant as Penn State wrestling under Cael Sanderson.

Aaron Brooks picked up 27 points for the Nittany Lions in last year’s NCAA Championships: seven bonus points in addition to the 20 for winning the national title.

“The problem is 197, where they scored 27 points,” said Pyles. “How are they going to fill that in? But they don’t have to score 27. If they score 12-12.5 points there, they are going to be in the mix [there].”

The starting spot at 197 is still a little bit in the air. Many anticipate that redshirt freshman Josh Barr will begin the year as the starter after going 15-0 during his redshirt season. There is, of course, Connor Mirasola, another top-ranked prospect from the incoming recruiting class.

Sanderson hasn’t had a problem wrestling the best guy in the past. But this weight seems to be setting up for Barr to take the starting role, and then the pieces can begin to shuffle once Kerkvliet and Starocci leave after this season.

The verdict

Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

These projections would give Penn State wrestling 173 points, breaking the 2024 record by half a point. It isn’t too much of a stretch to see all these things happening this winter. If Lilledahl, Davis, and Barr can become All-Americans and everyone does around the same as last year, then it is a near certainty that the record gets broken.

As if Cael Sanderson’s stranglehold on the sport couldn’t be more evident, how about breaking your own record back-to-back years.

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