PREVIEW: Penn State hosts No. 2 Iowa in highly-anticipated BJC dual

No. 1 Penn State wrestling will look to extend the program’s dual win streak to 66 when the Nittany Lions welcome the No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes to the Bryce Jordan Center on Friday night. Iowa will be the most talented team that Cael Sanderson and his Nittany Lions to date.

How much should we expect Penn State to be pushed in Friday’s highly anticipated matchup?

Penn State vs. Iowa preview

Penn State and Iowa both enter this match 9-0 (3-0 Big Ten), sitting as the undisputed top two teams in the nation. The Nittany Lions are fresh off a dominant 35-3 victory over No. 13 Rutgers in Piscataway last Friday night. Iowa enters after a hard-fought 24-13 win over No. 4 Ohio State last Saturday in Iowa City.

The Nittany Lions come into the dual with all ten wrestlers ranked in the top seven, including two No. 1 ranked wrestlers. Iowa enters with nine of ten starters ranked. The Hawkeyes also have two ranked wrestlers No. 1 in their respective weights.

Iowa leads the all-time series between the two programs 28-13-2. The Nittany Lions have won three straight against the Hawkeyes, including a 29-6 win at Iowa last season. The last dual at the BJC resulted in a 23-14 win for Penn State wrestling in 2023.

Match to watch

197: No. 4 Josh Barr 12-0 (PSU) vs No. 1 Stephen Buchanan 13-0 (IOWA)

It was incredibly difficult to pick which match was the most intriguing for this dual. There are five top-five matchups, seven top-ten matchups, and nine ranked matchups in general. From a rankings perspective, the feature dual is likely the No. 1 vs. No.2 matchup between Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) and Mikey Caliendo (IOWA) at 165.

Four matches are also being viewed as true toss-ups: 133, 149, 157, and 197 pounds. The dual at 197 pounds will offer us the biggest data point when looking ahead to the postseason.

No. 4 Josh Barr has been off to an incredible start to his redshirt freshman season, currently undefeated at 12-0 with a 91.67% bonus. Barr started the year unranked, but after picking up two top-ten wins, he has vaulted himself into the top four. But Friday night will be Barr’s biggest test of the season, as the young Nittany Lion will face the national title favorite: No. 1 Stephen Buchanan.

Buchanan transferred to the Hawkeyes for his last year of eligibility after spending three years at Wyoming and two seasons with Oklahoma. Before Iowa, the senior wrestler finished eighth and third for the Cowboys before redshirting and finishing third again for Oklahoma in 2024. His career record is a solid 99-25. Buchanan is currently 13-0 with an 84.62% bonus this season. Just like Barr, this matchup will be the highest-ranked wrestler he has faced this season.

A win for either wrestler would be a significant data point for their resume, as both continue to pursue a high seed in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments. However, the dual may be even more important for Josh Barr.

As a freshman and still a relative unknown, Barr is on the outside looking in on the perceived top three at the weight class. Buchanan, Jacob Cardenas (Michigan), and AJ Ferrari (CSU Bakersfield) are considered a tier of their own and the true contenders to finish on top of the podium in March. A win against Buchanan at the BJC on Friday will prove that Barr should be considered not only as part of 197’s top tier but as a national title contender as well.

I think Barr feeds off the home crowd and pulls off the upset, catapulting him to potentially No. 1 in the updated rankings next week.

Projected Penn State vs Iowa wrestling lineups:

125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl 11-1 (PSU) vs No. 26 Joey Cruz 9-6 (IOWA)

133: No. 7 Braeden Davis 7-2 (PSU) vs No. 3 Drake Ayala 11-1 (IOWA)

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett 12-0 (PSU) vs Ryder Block 2-4 (IOWA) 

149: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness 11-1 (PSU) vs No. 2 Kyle Parco 13-0 (IOWA) 

157: No. 3 Tyler Kasak 12-0 (PSU) vs No. 1 Jacori Teemer 3-1 (IOWA) 

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink 13-0 (PSU) vs No. 2 Mikey Caliendo 13-0 (IOWA)

174: No. 2 Levi Haines 11-1 (PSU) vs No. 6 Patrick Kennedy 8-1 (IOWA)

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci 12-0 (PSU) vs No. 5 Gabe Arnold 11-0 (IOWA)

197: No. 4 Josh Barr 12-0 (PSU) vs No. 1 Stephen Buchanan 13-0 (IOWA)

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet 12-0 (PSU) vs No. 11 Ben Kueter 10-2 (IOWA)

Penn State vs. Iowa predictions:

125: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (PSU) by major decision

133: No. 3 Drake Ayala (IOWA) by decision

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (PSU) by major decision

149: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (PSU) by decision

157: No. 1 Jacori Teemer (IOWA) by decision

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) by major decision

174: No. 2 Levi Haines (PSU) by decision

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci (PSU) by major decision

197: No. 4 Josh Barr (PSU) by decision

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU) by decision

Final Score: No. 1 Penn State 28 – No. 2 Iowa 6

© Peter Ackerman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Predicting a match that pits No. 1 versus No. 2 is difficult because the two sides should be pretty even. The fact that I think Penn State wrestling wins in runaway fashion shows just how dominant the Nittany Lions’ lineup is this year.

Iowa is far and away the second-best team in the country, yet it was still difficult for me to find wins for the Hawkeyes. Last season, Penn State won 29-6 in Carver Hawkeye Arena. Logic would say that the Nittany Lions will wrestle better at home and potentially get more beneficial calls.

It feels like Iowa only has a real chance of winning matchups at 133, 149, 157, and 197. Although 165 features a No. 1 vs. No. 2 bout, Mitchell Mesenbrink went 3-0 against Mikey Caliendo last season, including a tech fall and major decision. Hawkeye fans may talk themselves into No. 5 Gabe Arnold pulling off a shocker over four-time champion No. 1 Carter Starocci. They may even feel good about No. 6 Patrick Kennedy upsetting No. 2 Levi Haines. Realistically, though, those are weights where Penn State wrestling sits as a pretty heavy favorite despite the rankings.

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Despite the monster that Cael Sanderson has built in Happy Valley, shutting out the No. 2 team in the country would be shocking. That would require the Nittany Lions to knock off two current top-ranked wrestlers.

Even without a shutout, that is something that I predict will happen. Tyler Kasak seems to wrestle his best when the lights are the brightest. Jacori Teemer is still returning to full strength after an injury and has only wrestled one match since being back. While Kasak could win this match, Teemer is still the favorite and one of my two victories for the Hawkeyes.

When healthy, Drake Ayala is certainly the favorite over Braeden Davis. But Ayala’s health remains a question mark. Like Kasak, Davis seems to be another Nittany Lion who is the underdog but will benefit from the venue and health of his opponent. But Ayala already took down Davis at 125 pounds last season. I expect more of the same in this dual, with a low-scoring battle.

At 149 pounds, I like Shayne Van Ness to get the upset win over Kyle Parco. The two previously met in 2023, where Van Ness won 7-2 to claim third at the NCAA Championships. While this would be an upset based on ranking, I don’t necessarily view it as one based on where I think the two wrestlers finish in March.

It’s possible that Iowa escapes with narrow wins in all four toss-ups, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think the Hawkeyes successfully limit the Nittany Lions’ success with bonus points, but Penn State wrestling will ultimately emerge with a comfortable win.

How to watch?

Date: January 31, 2025

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

TV: BTN

Location: Bryce Jordan Center

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