Penn State vs. USC by the numbers: Keys to a Nittany Lions road victory

Penn State football is the only team in the FBS to start the last four seasons with a record of 5-0. While impressive, the feat has no bearing on the task in front of the Nittany Lions. For the first time since the 2017 Rose Bowl, Penn State will head West to face the USC Trojans this weekend, the inaugural matchup between these two iconic programs as Big Ten opponents. 

While USC dropped out of the top 25 this week following an upset at Minnesota, Penn State found itself ascending into the top four of the latest AP Poll. Despite the gap in the national rankings, the Nittany Lions are only marginal 5.5-point favorites, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. However, the numbers suggest that the Blue and White may have a bigger edge than expected heading into Los Angeles.

Penn State rushing offense vs. USC rushing defense

After five games thus far, Penn State football has shown that it is a run-first team. The Nittany Lions have run the ball on over 64% of offensive plays this season. This is unsurprising, considering Penn State has one of the nation’s best running back duos, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. And even though there was offensive line turnover in the offseason, Happy Valley’s big men have dominated up front thus far in 2024.

Penn State is ranked No. 19 in the nation in rushing, with 217.8 rushing yards per game and an impressive 5.36 yards per carry. In contrast, USC’s rushing defense is tied for 87th, giving up 158.6 rushing yards per game and 4.96 yards per carry. 

USC has given up 290, 106, and 173 rushing yards to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, respectively, in its three Big Ten games this season. 

Penn State has rushed for 222 and 239 yards in its toughest tests this season – West Virginia and Illinois. Look for Penn State to continue to pound the rock in Los Angeles. 

Trojans passing offense vs. Nittany Lions pass defense

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

The strength of any Lincoln Riley-led team is the passing offense. Miller Moss took the reins of USC’s offense this year after Caleb Williams left for the NFL. Moss and talented receivers Zachariah Branch, Kyron Hudson, and Ja’Kobi Lane man an offense ranked 20th in the FBS with 292.8 passing yards per game. 

Even though USC’s passing game is its strength, the Trojans have still made mistakes in this area. The Trojans are tied for No. 58 in sacks allowed, with eight in five games. Additionally, Miller Moss has thrown four interceptions, making him susceptible to mistakes under pressure. 

USC just faced the best-passing defense in the FBS when it played Minnesota. The Golden Gophers only allowed 200 passing yards and one touchdown from Moss and secured two interceptions. Penn State is not far behind Minnesota, only allowing 157 passing yards per game (tied-11th). 

Even though USC’s strength is in the passing game, Penn State’s two transfer corners, talented pass rush, and elite safety Jaylen Reed have done a great job so far. If Penn State can take away the USC passing game, it will be a long game for the home team.

Other notable statistics

Penn State is fourth in the FBS in rushing defense, allowing 76.2 yards per game. USC is No. 78 in rushing offense with 149.6 yards per game. Don’t expect USC to try the ground game.

Turnovers may play a significant role in order for Penn State to win. The Nittany Lions have only surrendered three turnovers this year. USC, on the other hand, has given up nine.

There is a big disparity in sacks. Penn State is in the top 30 with 2.60 sacks per game, while USC is near the bottom of the FBS with 1.20 sacks per game.

Keys to a Nittany Lions road victory

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

The strength of this Penn State team is its offensive and defensive lines. Penn State will continue to run the ball, as it has shown through five games. Additionally, I would expect Tom Allen to dial up more pressure to force the Trojans into making more mistakes. 

Singleton will need to lace up for the Nittany Lions to feel comfortable on this road trip. The offense looked less explosive in the running game against UCLA without the team’s current leading rusher. 

Even with the spread being less than a touchdown, Penn State will try to replicate the formula that has led to a perfect start while in LA. If the Nittany Lions can follow their game plan, expect more Blue and White than Cardinal and Gold in the stands during the fourth quarter.

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