What has to happen for Penn State hockey to make the NCAA Tournament?

Amid months of jubilation, there was a rare moment of heartbreak for Penn State hockey last weekend. Playing in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals, the Nittany Lions fell in overtime on the road to Ohio State. The back-and-forth game saw a controversial goal batted in with a Buckeye high stick looming large.

Now, Penn State can no longer help itself get into the NCAA Tournament field. Instead, the Nittany Lions will be at home, relying on other teams around the country to do the lifting for them.

Where does Penn State hockey stand?

© Chris Eutsler / Basic Blues Nation, 2025.

After the loss, Penn State fell to No. 13 in the all-important PairWise rankings. For a 16-team field, 13 is a decent spot but far from a guarantee. The PairWise Probability Matrix at College Hockey News, an advanced simulation of all possible outcomes, still gives the Nittany Lions an 85% chance of making the dance. So what can go wrong to make that 15% a reality? Bid stealers.

A bid stealer is any team currently ranked outside the top 16 that wins its conference tournament, securing an auto-bid. At No. 13, Penn State can afford no more than three bid stealers. There are even some remote scenarios that see them slip to No. 14, meaning anything more than two bid stealers would spell the end of the season for the Blue and White.

So where do these bid stealers lie?

Atlantic Hockey/CCHA

Two conferences, Atlantic Hockey (AHA) and the Central Collegiate Hockey Association (CCHA), are guaranteed bid stealers as all their teams are outside the top 16. Minnesota State has already secured a bid by virtue of St. Thomas being ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as the program transitions from Division III. The outcome of this conference is irrelevant to Penn State hockey.

In the AHA, Bentley will take on Holy Cross in the championship game. This game won’t make or break anything for the Nittany Lions, but they should be rooting for Bentley. Holy Cross and Quinnipiac faced off this year, so a Holy Cross win would boost the Bobcats. That could matter if the last at-large bid comes down to Penn State and Quinnipiac. 

Rooting Interests: CCHA (None), AHA (Bentley)

Hockey East

Hockey East, the deepest conference in college hockey this season, only has one possible bid stealer still alive: Northeastern. The Huskies upset No. 1 Boston College this weekend to advance to the semifinals.

Penn State should root for, first and foremost, Northeastern to be eliminated as quickly as possible. The secondary rooting interest for this conference should be for Boston University to win the crown. All the remaining teams except the Terriers played Quinnipiac this season, which again could matter if it comes down to the final spot for those two squads. 

Rooting Interests: Northeastern to lose as soon as possible, Boston University to win the championship

ECAC

Things start to get complex when you get to the ECAC. Of the four teams in the semifinals, only one is not a bid stealer: the Quinnipiac Bobcats. The Bobcats, who won the league’s regular season, are the only team that could conceivably earn an at-large bid.

Quinnipiac will take on Cornell in the semifinals and, should it advance, either Dartmouth or Clarkson in the finals. The easiest pathway for Penn State here is Quinnipiac taking care of business and winning the title.

If Quinnipiac were to lose, it would be much better for them to lose in the semifinal than the championship game. The Bobcats losing in the championship game is one of the nightmare scenarios for the Nittany Lions.

If Quinnipiac loses to Cornell this weekend, there will be a pathway for a one-bid ECAC, but it becomes very cloudy and relies on many other results.

Rooting Interests: Quinnipiac to win championship

NCHC

This conference, paired with the ECAC, is where Penn State hockey fans should focus most of their time. There are two bid stealers remaining in the NCHC out of the four teams left: Arizona State and North Dakota.

Arizona State will take on Denver in the semifinals, while North Dakota gets Western Michigan. The dream scenario for the Nittany Lions is for both Denver and Western Michigan to win their semifinal games. Then it won’t matter who wins the conference. But the Blue and White should be pulling for the Pioneers and the Broncos.

Rooting Interests: Western Michigan or Denver to win the championship

Big Ten

There is no possibility of a bid stealer out of the Big Ten. Michigan State and Ohio State will face off in the conference title game, which has no impact on Penn State either way.

Rooting Interests: None

What has to happen for Penn State to make the NCAA Tournament?

The main focus for Penn State hockey is going to lie on Hockey East, the ECAC and the NCHC. Of the results discussed above, the Nittany Lions will need at least two of the three results from those conferences to go their way. Now, there are ways for them to get in if only one of those three occur, however they would rely on a lot of help. 

The good news for Penn State: Western Michigan is currently ranked No. 3 in the USCHO.com poll and is one of the best teams in the country, while Denver is the defending national champion. Those are solid squads to have to rely on to win a tournament. In the ECAC, Quinnipiac won 16 games and had only two regulation losses in conference play. Lastly, Northeastern is 14-19-3 and the first-ever No. 9 seed in the Hockey East to make the semifinals. All the results Penn State needs are very plausible, if not likely.

The bad news: this is March. Anything can happen. 

Conference tournament action will resume on Thursday, with the Hockey East semifinals and all the remaining games on Friday. Hockey East and the CCHA will crown a champion on Friday, while the remaining leagues will do so on Saturday. The NCAA Tournament selection show is slated for Sunday.

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