PREVIEW: Penn State hockey to put season on the line at Michigan

The stakes are simple for Penn State hockey this weekend: beat Michigan and continue its improbable second-half run, or lose and spend the rest of the postseason watching from home. The Wolverines are also looking to secure an NCAA Tournament berth, making it a true do-or-die scenario when the Nittany Lions take the ice in Ann Arbor on Friday.

The history

Penn State and Michigan have not met in the Big Ten Tournament since the league moved to the best-of-three series on campus sites format in 2018. The programs met three times prior when the tournament was played at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit, Michigan. The Nittany Lions won two of those three matchups, the last coming in 2017, which kickstarted a Big Ten title run and their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. 

The matchup

The Wolverines and Nittany Lions met four times this season. Penn State hockey is 1-3 in those four games.

The Wolverines swept the Nittany Lions in late November at Pegula Ice Arena. In the first matchup, Penn State rallied from down 4-1 in the first period to tie the game at five in the third period. Ultimately, Michigan found a late goal to win the game. The next night, Michigan rallied from a 4-1 deficit of its own en route to a 10-6 blowout. 

In that series, goaltender Noah Grannon filled in for Arsenii Sergeev after the transfer netminder sustained an injury the prior weekend against Wisconsin. The two games were the last Grannon played for the Lions this season, with former club goaltender John Seifarth filling in the rest of the way before Sergeev returned. 

Goaltending differences matter, and it showed when Penn State traveled to Michigan the last weekend of January. Penn State stole its fifth-ever win at Yost Ice Arena, a 5-4 victory after rallying from a 2-0 deficit. Sergeev made 35 saves, and JJ Wiebusch scored a late power-play goal to secure the massive victory. 

The following night, another competitive game entered the third period before three goals in a three-minute span turned it into a rout for the Wolverines. 

How Penn State hockey can win the series

© Chris Eutsler / Basic Blues Nation, 2024.

To win the series, Penn State hockey will have to do something the program has never done before: win two games at Yost Ice Arena in the same weekend. It would be a fitting way to cap a run that saw the Nittany Lions do a lot of things they’ve never done before.

This is the same Michigan team as the last few seasons. While still very talented, the Wolverines aren’t loaded with top-tier NHL players like prior years. This was evident early this year with surprising home losses to Minnesota State and St. Cloud State. 

While the task is daunting, the Nittany Lions have a few weaknesses they can exploit to win the series. 

Michigan takes the eighth-most penalties in the nation and only has the 38th-ranked penalty kill. Penn State will get its power play chances this weekend. The Nittany Lions will need to capitalize on them. 

Second, Michigan has rotated a tandem of goaltenders throughout the season, both of whom have mediocre save percentages around 0.900. This is a favorable matchup for a high-volume shooting team like the Nittany Lions.

On the other side, Sergeev has been one of the best goaltenders in the entire country down the stretch. He has stolen multiple games to get Penn State hockey to this point. He will need to be at his best yet again this weekend.

On paper, this looks like a very competitive series. There likely won’t be much breathing room, and seeing this series need the third game wouldn’t be shocking.

Puck drop will be at 7:00 p.m. on Friday and Saturday. If the teams split the first two games, there will be a third game at 7:00 p.m. on Sunday.

Thank you for reading Basic Blues Nation, one of the fastest-growing outlets covering Penn State athletics. Part of the Full Ride network, we are an alumni-owned, community-operated, credentialed media outlet dedicated to providing you with updated and reliable insights for all your favorite Nittany Lion sports. Whether it’s Penn State football, basketball, wrestling, or anything in between, you can find it all on Basic Blues Nation!

Please follow us on our social channels, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and subscribe to our newsletter on Substack for breaking news and notifications. For feedback, questions, or concerns, please email us at [email protected] or direct message us on social media.