Which games are most impactful to Penn State’s postseason hopes?

Penn State hockey has stormed back into NCAA Tournament contention with a strong second half of the season. At one point this year, the Nittany Lions were ranked in the 40s of the PairWise rankings and winless through their first eight games of the Big Ten schedule. Turning around in January, Penn State currently holds an 18-12-4 record and is ranked No. 14 in the latest PairWise heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

Yet, despite all of the success, the Nittany Lions will need to win their best-of-three series against Michigan to get into the NCAA Tournament. While victory over the Wolverines this weekend would put them in a great position, the Nittany Lions still need to hope that few bid-stealers make the Tournament bracket to improve their standing relative to the rest of the field.

Here is who Penn State hockey fans should root for this weekend as the regular season winds down for a few conferences and the postseason kicks off for others.

The most consequential matchups for Penn State hockey

No. 4 Maine over No. 12 Umass

Outside of Penn State beating Michigan, two series can have the biggest impact on the Nittany Lions’ PairWise ranking. In the first, Maine travels on the road for a two-game series with Umass. While playing at home will definitely be an advantage for UMass, it also exposes the Minutemen to a bigger drop if they were to lose in their own building. We saw this last week when Penn State moved up to No. 12 in the rankings and then plummeted to 15 after a regulation loss to No. 3 Minnesota.

A Maine sweep would bring UMass back to the pack and possibly put it behind Penn State hockey. The No. 11 and No. 12 spots are confidently safe for the NCAA Tournament because there is a high likelihood that the Hockey East and Big Ten conference winners will be in the field. So, Penn State getting closer to that No. 12 spot is crucial.

No. 20 New Hampshire over No. 15 Umass Lowell

UMass Lowell took a significant drop last week after finishing with a tie and loss at UMass. If New Hampshire can win either of these games, it should effectively eliminate UMass Lowell from contention outside of a very deep Hockey East Tournament run. A New Hampshire sweep would mean that an auto-bid from the Hockey East Tournament would be the only option for UMass Lowell.

Strengthening the Nittany Lions’ schedule

The PairWise is a fickle system, and sometimes, the games with few eyeballs can be the difference between a team finishing .0001 ahead of another and making the NCAA Tournament.

While the games in the above section are more impactful, these three games can still have an impact on Penn State hockey (ranked from most beneficial to least):

• No. 55 St. Lawrence over No. 24 Dartmouth
• No. 54 Canisius over No. 36 Bentley
• No. 50 Army over No. 47 Niagara

The Nittany Lions defeated St. Lawrence and Canisius twice and Army once during the non-conference portion of their schedule.

The most significant win would be if St. Lawrence can pick up a road victory over a solid Dartmouth squad. A road win is already valued higher than a home win. Add in the 31-spot rankings gap, and it should benefit Penn State hockey by at least a few points. St. Lawrence is the worst team in the ECAC and the No. 12 seed in the conference tournament.

Canisius and Army are seeded No. 6 and No. 5, respectively, in the AHA Tournament and will both have multiple opportunities to pick up quality wins in their best-of-three series. If either can pull off the upset and advance, it should give Penn State a bump in the RPI.

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