Where does Penn State football stand in a new-look Big Ten?

It is a new age of the Big Ten and college football. With the addition of USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington to the conference, Penn State football is now among the “Power Two” leagues that are bigger and deeper than ever. The 12-team College Football Playoff eliminates the urgency for perfection during the regular season. A 10-2 record in the Big Ten is likely a lock to make the postseason, and a 9-3 team with the right schedule will be able to make a legitimate argument.

Like everyone else, Penn State football will have to reset and navigate this new reality within the conference and on the national landscape.

“I would say the first thing is the length of the season,” James Franklin said Saturday at Penn State football media day when discussing the challenges of managing the new CFP format. “I think you guys know, we have always talked about trying to create depth. That was always important playing in a conference like the Big Ten.”

But where exactly do James Franklin and the Nittany Lions fall in the new-look Big Ten hierarchy? We grouped the conference’s 18 teams into 5 tiers heading into the 2024 season.

Where does Penn State football stand in the Big Ten heading into 2024?

Tier 5: Take the checks, take the losses

Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana

Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

As Bud Elliot of the CBS Sports Cover 3 podcast constantly reiterates, there will always be teams that won’t be able to compete in the new super conferences. Yet, no matter how bad it gets on the field, each school still gets the same amount of the massive TV revenue the Big Ten is bringing in.

The term “take the checks, take the losses” applies to schools such as Northwestern, Purdue, and Indiana, which simply won’t have the resources to keep up in the new-look conference. This tier will likely routinely finish at the bottom of the league, and the goal of these programs every season should be to make a bowl game. Anything above seven wins would be considered a special season.

Tier 4: Competing for bowl eligibility

Rutgers, Maryland, Illinois, Minnesota

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

This tier features teams that should be competing for bowl bids every season. If these programs schedule non-conference games correctly and get off to a 3-0 start, going 3-6 in the conference isn’t too unreasonable. Programs like Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, and Rutgers fall into this category.

Again, the key will be scheduling a non-conference slate with the knowledge that the Big Ten schedule will be a grind. It may be a rotation on how many of these teams make a bowl game, but anything less than a six-win season for a two or more-year stretch would be a disappointment.

Tier 3: Dangerous in cycles

Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan State

Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This tier has perhaps the most volatility and the largest groups of programs. Iowa, Michigan State, Nebraska, UCLA, and Wisconsin all have the upside to potentially make the CFP if their rosters and schedules hit just right. However, a typical record for these programs will most likely be within the range of 7-5 to 9-3.

Particularly, Wisconsin and Michigan State seem the most capable of breaking through and into Tier 2. None of these programs are considered “elite” within the Big Ten now but have the potential to be dangerous in four-year cycles.

Tier 2: College Football Playoff hopefuls

Penn State, USC, Washington

Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

This tier is where we finally get to the College Football Playoff contenders and where Penn State football falls. All three of these teams should be in contention for the CFP every season, and anything less than a 9-3 record would be considered a disappointment.

Penn State should be able to beat one, if not both, USC and Washington on a consistent basis. If the Nittany Lions ever hope to reach the top tier of the Big Ten, it will have to beat both consistently. James Franklin will have his first chance to do both this season.

Scheduling will play a big role in whether Penn State and others in this tier can make the CFP on a consistent basis. It will take at least 10 wins to be safely in the postseason, as the Big Ten will most likely qualify three or four spots as a conference. That would require the Nittany Lions, Trojans, or Huskies to knock off one of the top three who will be in line to grab those spots every season.

Tier 1: National Championship contenders

Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan

© Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

These are the elite teams of the Big Ten. Ohio State and Oregon are recruiting at a top-five level and are serious contenders to not just make the CFP but win the national title. Michigan, on the other hand, doesn’t quite recruit at that level. But the Wolverines have proven that their system can get them from the fringe of this tier to the top with their National Championship a season ago.

This is the level for which Penn State football should be striving. These programs are near-locks to make the College Football Playoff each season. If James Franklin hopes to lead the Nittany Lions to its first National Championship since 1986, making the Playoff needs to be a formality. The 2024 season will be a massive opportunity for Penn State to take the first steps toward reaching that goal.

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