By the numbers: How Penn State football can pick up a primetime win vs. Wisconsin

Penn State football travels to Madison on Saturday to face Wisconsin with a chance to move to 7-0 on the season. However, it’ll be no easy task as the Nittany Lions will face a hostile Camp Randall crowd and a hot Badgers squad.

How does Penn State get to Ohio State week undefeated? Here are the key numbers Nittany Lions fans must look out for on Saturday night.

Wisconsin rushing offense vs. Penn State rushing defense

© Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

By most measures, the Badgers offense is average in the FBS. The Badgers are 67th in scoring offense at 29.0 points per game and 56th in total offense with 406.6 yards per game. Sticking to Wisconsin’s roots, coach Luke Fickell has prioritized the ground game this season. Senior running back Tawee Walker leads the 35th-ranked rushing offense in the country, which is averaging 194.0 yards per game. 

Part of the emphasis on the run is due to the season-ending injury of Wisconsin quarterback Tyler Van Dyke in the third game of the season against Alabama. Now-starting quarterback Brayden Locke has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7-5, making the aerial attack more risky. 

The Penn State defense is very strong against the run. The Blue and White rank 10th in the FBS with 95.0 rushing yards allowed per game. That being said, two weeks ago against USC, the Nittany Lions gave up 189 rushing yards, by far the team’s worst performance against the run all season.

Assuming Penn State football cleaned up the run game issues caused by the Trojans during the bye week, the status quo should be good enough to make it a long game for the Wisconsin offense.

Nittany Lions passing offense vs. Badgers pass defense

© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Penn State’s passing offense is vastly improved from last season. Drew Allar has led the offense to 270.0 passing yards per game (29th) with 14.46 yards per completion (9th).

Against USC, Tyler Warren made the national spotlight when he tied an FBS record for most catches by a tight end in a game (17). Two massive fourth-down catches by Julian Fleming allowed the Nittany Lions to stay in the game late. Harrison Wallace, Omari Evans, and Liam Clifford have also been solid targets for Drew Allar.

USC was the first game this season in which Penn State had to throw in order to win. Despite three interceptions from Allar, the junior quarterback threw for almost 400 yards and two touchdowns. Winning in a variety of ways is key for the Nittany Lions to stay in the College Football Playoff, and perhaps the National Championship, conversation. 

However, Penn State is going up against one of the best pass defenses in the country. The Badgers are 7th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, giving up only 155.9 yards through the air. 

Expect the Nittany Lions to return to pounding the rock against the Badgers. Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton will face the 61st-ranked rush defense, which gives up 139.9 yards per game.

The Badgers gave up 181 and 161 rushing yards in their two losses to Alabama and USC, respectively. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s zone run scheme should be in effect on Saturday night. 

Very cool formation from PSU. They have an outside zone option, with a shovel pass to Singleton as the other option pic.twitter.com/yiNKCScs0P

— LandonTengwall (@landon_tengwall) October 12, 2024

Other notable statistics

© Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

Luke Fickell’s Badgers are disciplined when it comes to penalties. They average only four a game, tied for eighth in the FBS. 

Wisconsin is tied for 78th in completion percentage at 60.8% between Van Dyke and Locke. Conversely, Penn State is 6th, with a completion percentage of 70.9%.  

Both teams are excellent at preventing first downs. Penn State is second in the nation, giving up 92 first downs the whole season. Wisconsin is eighth in the country at 105 first downs allowed despite playing one more game than the Nittany Lions. Both teams are nearly even at around 15 per game, with the Badgers slightly edging the Nittany Lions.

What to expect from Penn State football

© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Penn State was forced to abandon its game plan against USC. The 20-6 halftime deficit required the team to throw more than it preferred. The Nittany Lions’ bread and butter all season has been establishing the running game.

The more susceptible part of the Badgers’ defense is the run. A presumably healthy Nicholas Singleton makes Penn State much more dangerous on the ground. Expect No. 10 to get a lot more carries than he did in Los Angeles. 

Wisconsin is going to try to run the ball as well. But when the Nittany Lions have expected teams to prioritize the run, the defense has been successful. For instance, Penn State held Illinois to 34 rushing yards. Last week, the Illini just put up 187 rushing yards against Michigan’s impressive front seven. 

In the passing game, Drew Allar will have to look for someone other than Tyler Warren. The Badgers will likely try to double-team him after last game’s historic performance. Wisconsin should attempt a quick passing game to minimize mistakes and stay on schedule. This is the same tactic Bowling Green used to have success against Penn State earlier in the year. 

But ultimately, I think this game comes down to the matchup on the ground. If Penn State establishes the run while minimizing Tawee Walker, expect the Nittany Lions to cover the 6.5-point spread. 

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