Penn State football ranked among best-positioned teams for 2024 College Football Playoff

Penn State football is primed to take full advantage of the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff. James Franklin and the Nittany Lions are ranked among the top teams most likely to make the 2024 CFP in analysis released by ESPN on Thursday.

Using the network’s Football Power Index and other analytics, ESPN senior writer Heather Dinich ranked the 30 teams best-positioned to reach the postseason and win a National Championship. The FPI and ESPN Analytics also determined each team’s toughest test en route to the College Football Playoff.

Penn State football ranks No. 5 on the list, with a 59.1% chance of reaching the CFP and 6.6% odds of winning the title. Unsurprisingly, the Nittany Lions’ toughest test was determined to be the November 2 home matchup against Ohio State.

The full top 10 is as follows:

1. Georgia
2. Oregon
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Missouri
9. Tennessee
10. Oklahoma

What could the College Football Playoff Committee like about Penn State football?

While their toughest test may be inside Beaver Stadium, James Franklin and the Nittany Lions face several challenging road contests this season versus West Virginia, USC, and Wisconsin.

A clean sweep against those opponents, Dinich believes, could make Penn State stand out to the CFP Committee, even with a loss to the Buckeyes, if the Nittany Lions get a little help along the way.

“If PSU can go 3-0 against those teams, that can help compensate for a home loss to Ohio State and possibly earn the Nittany Lions a spot in the field without a Big Ten title,” Dinich writes. “It might even give them wiggle room in November, but a lot of that depends on whether USC and Wisconsin are ranked, and assumes West Virginia has another respectable season. PSU needs to find a signature win somewhere on its schedule.”

What could dash the Nittany Lions 2024 CFP hopes?

Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, the same factor that could propel them into the postseason this fall could also be their downfall.

An early-season loss could ground Penn State’s playoff dreams before they even get off the ground in 2024. With a light schedule to start the season, Dinich writes that an opening-season road upset from the Mountaineers would be the most likely candidate.

“Penn State plays just one road game in the first six weeks of the season,” she writes. “The Nittany Lions are unlikely to face a ranked opponent the entire month, with games against West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State and Illinois. If WVU can pull off a home upset in the season opener, Penn State might need a 14-team CFP sooner than later.”

Is Penn State given too much credit heading into 2024?

Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

The Nittany Lions are undoubtedly one of the programs in college football that benefit the most from an expanded College Football Playoff. Historical data shows that Penn State would have been a perennial playoff contender had the CFP originated with 12 teams.

However, Dinich believes there are just too many unknowns about James Franklin and his football program heading into August to have the Nittany Lions ranked as highly as the FPI indicates.

“Penn State has a great chance to make the playoff — especially as an at-large team — but No. 5 is too high for the Nittany Lions at this point,” Dinich says. “PSU might be the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State, Oregon, and perhaps defending national champion Michigan. The Nittany Lions’ running game wasn’t as explosive last season and fell below expectations, while the passing game was underwhelming. Once again, coach James Franklin has new offensive and defensive coordinators.”

While it’s true that there are many question marks surrounding Penn State football heading into 2024, the path to the postseason has never been more wide open either.

Andy Kotelnicki will look to revamp the Nittany Lions offense, while the defense will be taken over by a coordinator with Big Ten coaching experience in Tom Allen. The Nittany Lions have one of the easier schedules in the Big Ten, and should be in position for another double-digit win regular season under James Franklin.

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