Penn State football: Purdue odds, injury report, & predictions

Penn State football knows exactly what it needs to do to make the College Football Playoff. Win the final three games of the regular season, and the 11-1 Nittany Lions will be bound for the postseason a home playoff game in the first round.

That quest starts Saturday with a road trip to the Big Ten’s bottom feeder in 2024: Purdue. What do you need to know to get ready for Saturday’s kickoff in West Lafayette?

Injury report

Penn State:

Penn State football players out indefinitely with “significant” or “long-term” injuries:

• KJ Winston, S
• Andrew Rappleyea, TE
• Keon Wylie, LB
• Zuriah Fisher, DE
• Cam Wallace, RB

Penn State football players listed on the program’s Week 11 injury report. Please note that the Big Ten requires updated availability reports to be released two hours before kickoff:

• Kaden Saunders, WR
• Joey Schlaffer, TE
• Jake Spencer, WR
• Sandar Sahaydak, K
• Dani Dennis-Sutton, DE (Questionable)
• Coziah Izzard, DT (Questionable)

Coziah Izzard didn’t appear last weekend against Washington, and Dani Dennis-Sutton was limited for the second week in a row.

Offensively, concerns emerged late Saturday night against the Huskies regarding standout running back Nicholas Singleton, who didn’t return to the game after exiting in the third quarter. Singleton did participate during the open portion of Wednesday’s practice, and the latest from James Franklin is that the Nittany Lions are “confident he’ll be ready to go” against the Boilermakers.

Purdue:

The following players were listed on the Purdue injury report for Week 11:

• Damarjhe Lewis
• Jamarius Dinkins
• Joshua Sales Jr.
• Anthony Brown (Questionable)

Betting Odds (all via DraftKings Sportsbook):

Spread: Penn State (-29.5) vs. Purdue

Penn State opened the week as a 28-point favorite against Purdue, but the spread has been moving in the Nittany Lions’ favor, sitting at 29.5 as of Friday evening.  Penn State is 4-5 against the spread this season, and the Boilermakers are 2-7 against the spread.

Moneyline: Penn State football -9,000

Placing a $9,000 bet on Penn State to beat Purdue would pay $100. Penn State leads the all-time series 16-3-1. The last meeting was a 35-31 season-opening win for the Nittany Lions in West Lafayette in 2022.

Penn State has won 10 straight meetings over Purdue dating back to 2005. During the five-game road winning streak that period encompasses, the Nittany Lions have outscored the Boilermakers 163-70.

Game total: over/under 51

The total has gone under in seven of Penn State’s nine games this season and over in five of Purdue’s nine games.

Penn State vs. Purdue game predictions: (12-6)

© Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

Penn State football needs a big win this week to gain momentum heading down the stretch. Purdue has struggled all season and has yet to defeat an FBS opponent.

Teams have run all over the Boilermakers, which ranks 118th in rushing defense. This will be an opportunity for Andy Kotelnicki to get Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen jumpstarted. Also facing the No. 108 passing defense, it could be a chance to see more production from wide receivers Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, two key players if the Nittany Lions hope to make a playoff run.

Realistically, this game could end with Purdue not scoring or being held to single digits. The Boilermakers have faced four ranked teams this season, three of which are currently in the top 10. Purdue lost by a combined 146-7 to Notre Dame, Oregon, and Ohio State. Anything more than seven points allowed by the Penn State defense would probably feel like a disappointment. This game will hinge on whether Penn State’s offense can put the game away early and really run it up.

I am not 100% confident that Penn State football can cover the -29.5-point spread. The Nittany Lions have a chance to win this game 45-0 like Ohio State did, but they also could win by three or four scores and look not completely dialed in.

I am predicting a comfortable four-touchdown victory, but I have Penn State falling just short of the point spread. I also like the under in this game. Even if the Nittany Lions blow the Boilermakers out, I think the total will be more in the mid-40s range.

Prediction: Penn State 35 – Purdue 7

Big Ten bet of the week (4-5)

No. 1 Oregon (-13.5) vs. Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m., NBC

Back in the loss column after Minnesota fell to Rutgers outright last week and eliminated Penn State’s chances to add another ranked opponent to its schedule.

This week, we turn to Oregon, who is traveling to Madison to take on a beat-up Wisconsin squad. While this may seem like a trap game in Camp Randall at night, Oregon has dominated almost every opponent this season. Outside Ohio State, the Ducks have defeated every Big Ten team by at least three touchdowns. I expect that to continue this week, with Oregon running up the score and easily covering the two-touchdown spread.

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