Insiders predict elite Penn State football commit will flip to SEC foe

James Franklin and Penn State football may be fighting a losing battle for one of the program’s top commitments in the 2025 recruiting cycle. Thursday night, multiple national recruiting experts predicted that four-star Elba (Alabama) running back Alvin Henderson will flip his commitment from the Nittany Lions to the Auburn Tigers.

On3’s Steve Wiltfong and Chad Simmons logged their predictions in the outlet’s Recruiting Prediction Machine on Thursday evening. Both insiders expressed a confidence level of 60/100 in Henderson’s eventual flip.

On3's @SWiltfong_ and @ChadSimmons_ have logged expert predictions for Auburn to flip Penn State 4-star RB commit Alvin Henderson🦅

Read: https://t.co/I99PttHQf6 pic.twitter.com/qaGWYm8ONq

— On3 Recruits (@On3Recruits) June 20, 2024

Where do things stand between Alvin Henderson and Penn State football?

Mandatory Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

The news likely doesn’t come as a surprise to those who have followed the recruitment of Alvin Henderson. A massive recruiting win for Penn State football this spring, Auburn has expressed a willingness to go to great lengths to get the in-state running back in its class.

Henderson returned to Happy Valley last weekend for his official visit, where he doubled down on his commitment to the Nittany Lions. Henderson continues to be vocal in his support of the Blue and White online.

He took an unannounced visit to The Plains in May but has no official visit scheduled with Auburn during the June window. The four-star running back is expected to visit Miami this weekend.

“There’s only one setback for him, only one holdup for him, and that’s the running back production under [Auburn coach] Hugh Freeze,” On3’s Jeffrey Lee said recently of Henderson’s relationship with the Tigers. “… He’s wanting to see that in this fall, and I think he’ll see what he wants to see…ultimately, I think he ends up with Auburn; I’m not alone in that. But right now, you’ve still got to unseat Penn State from him.”

Alvin Henderson rushed for 3,523 yards and 61 touchdowns on 225 carries. He is the No. 8 running back in the 2025 recruiting cycle in On3’s Industry Rankings.

Losing Henderson would be a significant blow to Penn State football in the 2025 recruiting cycle. Per On3’s Industry Comparison, Henderson is the Nittany Lions’ highest-ranked offensive commitment and second-highest recruit in the class, only behind Mater Dei (California) cornerback Daryus Dixson.

Penn State has elevated to the No. 12 class in the cycle after a string of commitments over the last week.

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