By the numbers: How Penn State earns the biggest win of the James Franklin era this week

Since the 2024 season kicked off, it’s felt like all roads have led to Beaver Stadium this Saturday. Penn State football boasts the No. 3 ranking in the nation, with an undefeated 7-0 record. Fourth-ranked Ohio State is 6-1, with only a one-point loss to top-ranked Oregon separating the Buckeyes from an unblemished record.

The first top-five matchup in Beaver Stadium in a quarter-century, Saturday could be a turning point for the Nittany Lions under the leadership of James Franklin. Here are the key numbers Penn State needs to focus on to get the job done.

Ohio State passing offense vs. Penn State pass defense

© Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State’s passing game has changed pretty significantly from last season. Quarterback Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse. The Buckeyes filled this hole by bringing in Will Howard from Kansas State.

Star wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. left for the NFL, where he was the fourth overall pick. Freshman Jeremiah Smith replaced the 1,200-yard receiver, and the five-star true freshman has become one of the best pass catchers in college football this season. 

Smith is joined in the wide receiver room by veteran Emeka Egbuka and sophomore, former five-star Carnell Tate. The three receivers have carried much of the load for a talented Ohio State pass game. 

The Buckeyes are averaging 283.9 passing yards per game, 22nd in college football. Will Howard, a Penn State fan growing up, has thrown for nearly 1,800 yards with a 17-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio through seven games. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has been able to throw the ball downfield with little risk of his quarterback turning the ball over.

However, Ryan Day’s squad will be going up against the best pass defense they have seen all season. The Nittany Lions are 9th in college football, giving up only 5.74 yards per attempt. Overall, Tom Allen’s group is giving up 174.6 yards per game through the air (19th in FBS).

Transfer corners AJ Harris and Jalen Kimber have been good additions to the Nittany Lions secondary after losing Kalen King and Johnny Dixon last offseason. Additionally, Penn State safety Jaylen Reed had a critical pick-six against Wisconsin that changed the course of the game. Paired with Reed is safety Zakee Wheatley, who had the tackle that sealed last week’s victory against the Badgers.

Nittany Lions rushing offense vs. Buckeyes rush defense

© Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State is averaging 197.1 rushing yards per game, which is 28th in the FBS. Last week against Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions ran for 173 yards on 4.9 yards per carry.

The ground game against Ohio State will largely depend on the health of Nicholas Singleton. While Singleton was listed as a full participant and played the whole game, NBC commentator and former Nittany Lions quarterback Todd Blackledge noted that the junior running back looked a little slower than usual. Singleton rushed for 4.1 per carry against the Badgers, while his counterpart, Kaytron Allen, rushed for 7.8 per carry. 

A boost in the running game could hinge on Penn State’s quarterback usage throughout the game. While Drew Allar is reportedly now expected to play, how healthy the junior signal caller will be is yet to be seen. Conversely, backup Beau Pribula can provide a spark on the ground. The dual-threat QB has shown off his wheels all season in specific packages and led the Nittany Lions to 21 second-half points in Madison last week.

That being said, Ohio State has an excellent rushing defense. The Buckeyes have given up 91.3 yards per game on the ground (2.84 yards per rush). Defensive linemen Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have led another good Larry Johnson defensive line. 

The lingering questions around Drew Allar’s health and the Nittany Lions’ emphasis on the run this season mean Penn State may need to run to win. Even against good rush defense, expect Andy Kotelnicki to try the ground game early and often. 

Other notable statistics

© Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Penn State football has had a significant advantage on third downs over Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are making half of their third-down attempts (tied 8th), while the Buckeyes are making 43.9% of their third-downs (tied 38th).

Fourth down is a different story. Ohio State has converted on 71.4% of its fourth downs (tied 18th). On the other hand, Penn State is making two-thirds of its fourth downs (tied 26th) on half as many attempts. In a game that is likely to come down to the wire, late-down success will be critical.

Ohio State averaged 7.6 tackles for loss per game, one more than Penn State.

Both teams are in the top four in total defense per game this season. The Scarlet and Grey are second in the FBS, giving up only 254.4 yards per game. The Blue and White are fourth in the FBS, giving up 267.7 yards per game. 

What to expect from Penn State football

© Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

This game will largely depend on the health of both teams. Penn State lost Allar, right Anthony Donkoh, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton at Wisconsin.

Ohio State will be without star left tackle Josh Simmons, who is out for the rest of the season. According to Ryan Day, his replacement, Zen Michalski, is also trending toward not playing Saturday after leaving last week’s game against Nebraska with an injury. 

Against the Cornhuskers, Ohio State struggled to run the football with its make-shift offensive line. Across the line, the Buckeyes have struggled to get pressure on the opposing quarterback this season. Penn State has been at the top of the country in the fewest pressures allowed this season.

If Penn State’s offensive line and Ohio State’s defensive lines play as expected, Drew Allar could be the option, with the risk of further injury being lower. If Penn State finds Allar too unhealthy to go, Beau Pribula will provide the offense with a spark that could propel the Nittany Lions to victory. 

Be it Allar or Pribula, Ohio State will need to make Penn State’s quarterback uncomfortable to win. The Buckeyes will also need to drum up more success in the ground game. Expect Penn State to try to take away Jeremiah Smith and force someone else to beat them through the air.

For the first time all season, Penn State football is not favored to win. According to oddsmakers, the Buckeyes have a three-point advantage. To beat the spread, the Nittany Lions must start fast and limit the Buckeyes through the air. If this is accomplished, there may be a sea of white on the field of Beaver Stadium come Saturday afternoon.

Thank you for reading Basic Blues Nation, one of the fastest-growing outlets covering Penn State athletics. Part of the Full Ride network, we are an alumni-owned, community-operated, credentialed media outlet dedicated to providing you with updated and reliable insights for all your favorite Nittany Lion sports. Whether it’s Penn State football, basketball, wrestling, or anything in between, you can find it all on Basic Blues Nation!

Please follow us on our social channels, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and subscribe to our newsletter on Substack for breaking news and notifications. For feedback, questions, or concerns, please email us at [email protected] or direct message us on social media.