Greg McElroy picks SMU to upset Penn State in round one of the College Football Playoff

Postseason football is coming to State College. James Franklin and Penn State football have earned the right to host a first-round matchup in the inaugural season of the 12-team College Football Playoff and will welcome SMU to central Pennsylvania on December 21.

But despite the home-field advantage, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes that the round-one matchup could ultimately leave those in Happy Valley feeling less than enthused.

“SMU over Penn State,” McElroy said when discussing potential first-round upsets on Sunday afternoon’s College Football Playoff selection show. “If there has to be one, that’s the one that, to me, is the most intriguing and interesting.”

Ranked 10th and seeded 11th, the Mustangs were chosen as the final team in the field after falling to Clemson on a last-second field goal in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game.

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Finishing the year 11-2, SMU comes into the opening round contest with the No. 6 scoring offense, averaging 38.5 points per game. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is 18th among all passers with 3,050 yards this season. Defensively, the Mustangs are allowing just over 93 rushing yards a game, which is fourth-best nationally. However, the unit is a bottom-third passing defense, giving up over 232 yards an outing.

“Obviously, tremendous history and tradition at SMU,” James Franklin said on Sunday. “They’ve done a really good job. Obviously, look at their roster, very different than ours. I think they have 48 players from the transfer portal. We have nine, so you know, just very different ways of kind of building it.

“They’ve obviously done a really good job. So, looking forward to getting to know them a little bit better over the next couple days.”

Early Penn State-SMU game lines

© Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

At least in the initial hours following the College Football Playoff bracket reveal, the oddsmakers don’t necessarily agree with Greg McElroy’s prediction.

Penn State football opened as more than a touchdown favorite over SMU on Sunday. As of Monday, the line sits at nine points on DraftKings Sportsbook with a total of 53.5.

The winner of next week’s matchup in Beaver Stadium will travel to Glendale, Arizona, ten days later to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on December 31.

Kickoff between the Nittany Lions and Mustangs is set for noon on December 21. The opening round game will be broadcast on TNT and Max.

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