First 2025 FPI ranking revealed for Penn State football

We’re less than three months away from the start of the college football season. As Penn State football prepares to do battle with Nevada on August 30, analysts and pundits are setting their expectations for what could be considered a make-or-break year for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions. 

This week, we reached another milestone as we march closer to kickoff. On Monday, ESPN released the first edition of its Football Power Index for the 2025 season. 

Like most post-spring and early-season rankings, Penn State finds itself within the top five teams nationally. However, the Nittany Lions are slightly lower in the FPI than many other early-season projections, coming in at No. 5. 

Penn State finished No. 6 in ESPN’s final FPI for 2024. The Nittany Lions are the second-ranked team in the Big Ten heading into 2025, sandwiched between Ohio State at No. 4 and Oregon at No. 6. 

ESPN’s model gives Franklin and the Nittany Lions 25% odds of winning the conference, a 64% likelihood of returning to the College Football Playoff, and a 7% chance to win the national championship.

ESPN’s FPI-based preseason top 10

1. Texas
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Penn State
6. Oregon
7. Notre Dame
8. Texas A&M
9. Miami
10. Tennessee

According to ESPN, the FPI is a “predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” Similar to betting odds, the goal of the FPI is not to rank teams from best to worst; rather, it is to correctly predict games and end-of-season outcomes.

Thank you for reading Basic Blues Nation. Part of the Full Ride network, we are an alumni-owned and operated, credentialed media outlet dedicated to providing you with updated and reliable insights for all your favorite Nittany Lion sports. Whether it’s Penn State football, basketball, wrestling, or anything in between, you can find it all on Basic Blues Nation!

Please follow us on our social channels, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and subscribe to our newsletter on Substack for breaking news and notifications. For feedback, questions, or concerns, please email us at basicbluesnation@gmail.com or direct message us on social media.