Penn State football: Fiesta Bowl odds, injury report, & predictions

Penn State football returns to Glendale, Arizona, for its College Football Playoff Quarterfinal matchup against No. 3-seed Boise State. The Nittany Lions will be making their eighth trip to the Fiesta Bowl, and are 7-0 all-time in the bowl game.

James Franklin and Penn State enter as a heavy favorite to advance to the program’s first-ever CFP Semifinal. But, the Broncos have been known to spoil postseason dreams in the desert before. What are some key odds to watch ahead of the biggest game of the Nittany Lions’ season?

Injury Report

Penn State:

Penn State football players out indefinitely with “significant” or “long-term” injuries:

• KJ Winston, S
• Andrew Rappleyea, TE
• Keon Wylie, LB
• Zuriah Fisher, DE
• Cam Wallace, RB
• Alonzo Ford, DT
• Anthony Donkoh, OT

Penn State football players listed on the program’s injury report for the first round of the College Football Playoff. Please note that the Big Ten requires updated availability reports to be released two hours before kickoff:

• Tyseer Denmark, WR
• Kaden Saunders, WR
• Elliot Washington II, CB
• Kaleb Artis, DT
• Tyrece Mills, S

Betting Odds (all via DraftKings Sportsbook):

Spread: Penn State (-11) vs. Boise State

Penn State football opened as a 10.5-point favorite against Boise State. The line has fluctuated between 10-12 points in the days leading up to Tuesday. 

However, the line has drifted more in Penn State’s favor recently, with more money coming in on the Nittany Lions. Penn State is 7-7 against the spread this season, while Boise State is 7-5-1. 

Moneyline: Penn State football -485

Placing a $485 bet on Penn State to beat Boise State would pay $100. This will be the first-ever matchup between the Nittany Lions and Broncos. Both teams are undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl all-time, with Penn State holding a 7-0 record and Boise State a 3-0 record. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 against Mountain West teams all time. 

Game total: over/under 54

The total has gone under in eight of Penn State’s 14 games this season. Boise State has seen the total go over in seven of its 13 games. Penn State has gone under in seven of its last 10 games. Boise State has gone under this total in six of its last 10 games. 

Penn State vs. Boise State Game Predictions: (13-11)

© Chris Eutsler / Basic Blues Nation, 2024.

Once again, Penn State football is a significant favorite in the College Football Playoff. Against SMU, the Nittany Lions were over a touchdown favorite and took down the Mustangs 38-10, thanks in part to multiple early defensive scores.

This round, James Franklin will have to prepare his team for Heisman Trophy Runner-Up Ashton Jeanty. It will be a unique challenge for a Penn State defense, who has been excellent against the run this season.

I think that this game might be close early, with Boise State scoring a touchdown or two in the first half. But like we have seen all season, Penn State will begin to pull away and shut the Broncos after halftime. The Nittany Lions have a significant talent advantage on both sides of the ball, and their run defense matches up well with what the Broncos are looking to do offensively. If Tom Allen can scheme up a way to stop Jeanty, it will force Boise State to throw the ball and will allow Abdul Carter and the rest of the defensive linemen to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

On offense, I don’t see anyone on the Boise State side of the ball who can cover Tyler Warren. SMU was able to limit Warren in the first round of the playoff, but it was also a game where Penn State shut down its offense after getting a big lead and ran the ball to eat clock.

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The Mustangs also had much more talent on defense than the Broncos. What will be a key factor for the Penn State offense is the run game. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will have an opportunity to wear down the Boise State defense, and if the game is close at half, blow it open in the third and fourth quarters.

Keep an eye out for the Nittany Lions’ wide receivers to have a good game. The room has been a discussion point for much of the year, and overall has seen a lack of production. But if Drew Allar is given time to throw, they will have opportunities against the Boise State secondary, which is considered one of the weaker parts of the defense.

Overall, I think Penn State football pulls away and cruises to a comfortable three-score win. If the Nittany Lions are able to score quickly and often in the first quarter, this game could be a repeat of the matchup versus SMU. Forcing Boise State away from the run game and playing catch-up will only benefit the Nittany Lions.

Prediction: Penn State 41 – Boise State 17

CFP Quarterfinal bet of the week (6-6)

No. 7 Notre Dame (ML -105) vs No. 2 Georgia, 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

Depending on what book you look at, this game is practically a pick ’em. Georgia is a slight one-point favorite, but I like Notre Dame in this game.

There is just so much uncertainty with Bulldogs backup quarterback Gunner Stockton that it is hard to bank on their offense operating at peak form. Georgia has already had offensive struggles this season, and there is a lack of production from its wide receivers. Pair that with an excellent Notre Dame defense; the result could be a toss-up.

If this game is low-scoring and a defensive struggle similar to what we saw in the SEC Championship Game, then Georgia certainly has a chance to win. I think Notre Dame gets enough scoring from Riley Leonard and the offense, and the Irish defense shuts down Stockton in his first start. Take Notre Dame to cover whatever the number ends up being, and if the Irish are an underdog, take the moneyline. I wouldn’t be afraid to take the Irish anywhere up to a seven-point favorite in this game.

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