Penn State football: Big Ten Championship odds, injury report, & predictions

Penn State football will return to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since 2016 to compete for the Big Ten Championship against Oregon. The Nittany Lions will enter the game ranked No. 3 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and are already on track to host a playoff game. But after Michigan upset Ohio State last weekend, Penn State now gets an opportunity to earn the first-round bye with a conference championship victory.

What are some key odds to watch ahead of the biggest game of Penn State’s season?

Injury Report

Penn State:

Penn State football players out indefinitely with “significant” or “long-term” injuries:

• KJ Winston, S
• Andrew Rappleyea, TE
• Keon Wylie, LB
• Zuriah Fisher, DE
• Cam Wallace, RB
• Alonzo Ford, DT
• Anthony Donkoh, OT

Penn State football players listed on the program’s Week 14 injury report. Please note that the Big Ten requires updated availability reports to be released two hours before kickoff:

• Kaden Saunders, WR
• Elliot Washington II, CB
• Kaleb Artis, DT
• Harrison Wallace III, WR

Speaking to the media for the final time on Wednesday, James Franklin expressed confidence that both Harrison Wallace III and Elliot Washington II would be available for Saturday night’s matchup. Wallace missed last week’s regular-season finale against Maryland, while Washington has been absent since exiting November 16’s win over Purdue in the first half.

Oregon:

The following players were listed on the Oregon injury report for Week 14:

• Jahil Florence
• Kyle Kasper
• Tionne Gray
• Matthew Bedford
• Roger Saleapaga
• Jordan Burch
• Marcus Harper II
• My’Keil Gardner
• Keyon Ware-Hudson

Betting Odds (all via DraftKings Sportsbook):

Spread: Penn State (+3.5) vs. Oregon

Penn State football opened the week as a 3.5-point underdog against Oregon. Both teams are 6-6 against the spread this season.

Moneyline: Penn State football +140

Placing a $100 bet on Penn State to beat Oregon would pay $140. Penn State leads the all-time series 3-1. The last meeting was a 38-20 win for Penn State in the 1995 Rose Bowl, capping off a 12-0 season for the Nittany Lions. The other three matchups happened between 1960 and 1964.

Game total: over/under 50.5

The total has gone under in seven of Penn State’s 12 games this season and in seven of Oregon’s 12 games this season.

Penn State vs. Oregon Game Predictions: (12-10)

© Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

James Franklin will get an opportunity to silence the critics and finally get over the hump of beating an elite team. Penn State football did precisely what it needed to this season, finishing 11-1. The Nittany Lions beat all of the talent-inferior squads on their schedule, with the lone loss coming to Ohio State.

This year is the program’s third consecutive 10+ win season. Yet, the narrative remains that Penn State can’t compete with the sport’s title contenders. And really, you can’t argue with that statement. Year after year, the Nittany Lions fall to top-10 teams such as Ohio State and Michigan. At some point, the tables have to turn if the program is actually capable of winning it all.

This Saturday will be yet another test in the evolution of Penn State football under James Franklin. It isn’t a must-win game; the Nittany Lions have already clinched a College Football Playoff spot and, at worst, a first-round home game. However, this is a chance for Penn State to secure a first-round bye and shake the narrative that it can’t beat elite teams. Oregon is the only undefeated team left in the FBS. The Ducks already beat Ohio State, the team responsible for the Nittany Lions’ only loss.

The 3.5-point spread in this title game suggests the sportsbooks know something the public does not. It almost begs people to bet heavily on Oregon. After all, the Ducks are the more complete team and have proven they can win against quality opponents for years. Many experts expected this spread to open more in the 6.5-7 point range, but Penn State appears to be earning much more respect.

That said, I still need to see it before I would put money on Penn State football in this spot. James Franklin hasn’t won these games when entering as an underdog. There’s no clear advantage in the spread itself, as both teams are .500 against the lines set in Vegas this year. Therefore, give me Oregon minus the 3.5 points to win the game with a comfortable margin.

Thanks to its defense, Penn State can keep it close, but the Nittany Lions’ offense just hasn’t been explosive enough this season against good units. I think Oregon wins by a comfortable margin. I also would bet the under in this game; I could easily see the score finishing in the low 20s, with both defenses forcing red zone field goals.

Prediction: Penn State 17 – Oregon 26

Conference championship bet of the week (5-6)

Big 12 Championship: No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State (O 49.5)

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