Penn State football: Illinois odds, injury report, & predictions

Penn State football will open Big Ten play with its biggest test of the season as the 19th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini come to Beaver Stadium for a game under the lights. The Nittany Lions are relatively heavy favorites but the Illini will be a measuring stick of just how good this team can be.

Injury Report

Penn State:

Penn State football players out indefinitely with “significant” or “long-term” injuries:

KJ Winston S

Andrew Rappleyea TE

Peter Gonzalez WR

Jaxon Smolik QB

Keon Wylie LB

Zuriah Fisher DE

Penn State football players were listed on the program’s week 4 injury report. Please note that the Big Ten requires updated availability reports to be released two hours before kickoff:

Kari Jackson LB

Mason Robinson DE

Mehki Flowers WR

Sam Siafa DL

Liam Andrews DT

De’Andre Cook DT

T.A. Cunningham DT

Illinois:

The following players were listed on the Illinois injury report for Week 4.

Daniel Brown

Magnus Moller

Henry Boyer

Betting Odds (all via DraftKings Sportsbook):

Penn State (-18) vs. Illinois

Penn State enters this matchup as a much higher favorite than much of the public and media anticipated. Penn State is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 contests against Illinois.  The Illini are however 8-2 ats in their last 10 road games.

Penn State football Moneyline: -1000

Placing a $1000 bet on Penn State to beat Illinois would pay $100. Penn State football leads the series 21-6. The Nittany Lions won last year’s matchup in Champaign 30-13. The last time the two teams faced in Beaver Stadium, the Illini won 20-18 in a 9 overtime contest back in 2021.

Penn State football vs Illinois Over/Under 48

The total has gone under in 5 of Penn State’s past 7 games against Illinois. The total has also gone under in 4 of the last 6 games for Illinois.

Penn State vs. Illinois Game Predictions: (4-2)

Syndication: Hanover Evening Sun

This will be the first test to see where exactly this Penn State team is on the national scale. Illinois is by no means a juggernaut, but they are a quality football team that has upset both a ranked Kansas and Nebraska team to open the season and find themselves ranked No. 19 heading into this matchup. Luke Altmyer has been perfect this season throwing the football, registering 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

If Penn State wants to stop the Illinois offense it will start on the defensive line where they will need to get pressure on the veteran quarterback. Outside of the Kent State game, star defensive ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton have consistently failed to create much pressure. If the two-star players can get to Altmyer, they might be able to force interceptions, something we saw him do 4 times in last year’s matchup.

On the offensive side of the ball, this will certainly be the best defense that Drew Allar has faced so far this season. We will get to see just how good Andy Kotelnick’s offense is and if the explosive plays can continue. Right now Penn State ranks 2^nd in the nation in explosive play rate and if that continues against the Illini it will show even more promise that it isn’t a scheduling fluke.

The spread of this game was abnormally large for what many thought it would open at. Penn State has been trending anywhere from 17 to 19.5-point favorites on Saturday. I could see this game either being a less-than-10-point game or a game where the Nittany Lions win by 30+ points. It’s a similar feeling to heading into the West Virginia game. I would lean on taking Illinois +18 just because I think this one finishes at two touchdowns or less. The over I would feel more confident in spite of the rainy outlook because I think Penn State’s offense will surprise some more people with how much they can score this year.

I’ll predict a score that is a little homage to the last time that Penn State hosted a ranked Illinois team for a night game whiteout in the rain.

Prediction: Penn State 38  Illinois 24

Big Ten bet of the Week: (0-3)

Nebraska -10 @ Purdue 12:00 pm ET Peacock

I once again suffered at the hand of Ohio State, as the Buckeyes came up 5 points short of covering against Marshall. At this point being 0-3 I will start to take credit for giving you fading opportunities. This week I am taking Nebraska -10 on the road against a bad Purdue team. I think the Cornhuskers bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to Illinois a week ago and prove that they are a decent team in the Big Ten this season.

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