By the numbers: How Penn State football can win the Big Ten Championship

It has been eight years since Penn State football traveled to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game. The Nittany Lions defeated the Wisconsin Badgers, 38-31, to claim the conference title for the 2016 season. A seminal moment in the program’s history, the game helped propel the near decade of success under James Franklin that would follow.

Penn State returns to Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night as part of a new-look conference with drastically different stakes on the line. Facing top-ranked Oregon with a home first-round playoff game seemingly secure even with a loss, the Nittany Lions are playing for the College Football Playoff’s No. 1 overall seed and a chance for a bye into the bracket’s second round.

How can the Nittany Lions spoil the Ducks’ perfect season and earn what would be the best win by any team in the country this season? Here are the key numbers to watch for if Penn State football is destined to win its second Big Ten Championship Game in program history.

Penn State rushing offense vs. Oregon rushing defense

© Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

Oregon has been safe as the nation’s No. 1 team for almost half the season. Despite dominating their competition, statistically, Saturday’s matchup is fairly even. There are even some areas where the Nittany Lions can look to exert the upper hand. One of these areas is the ground game.

Penn State football boasts the 25th-ranked rushing attack in the FBS, with an average of 194.7 rushing yards per game. A fully healthy Nicholas Singleton, along with running mate Kaytron Allen, have propelled the Nittany Lions to its best regular season since 2008. 

Oregon has the 22nd-ranked rushing defense, giving up 112.2 yards per game. Besides allowing 221 yards to Boise State and Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, the Ducks have done well against the run in big games. They have given up 141, 132, and 105 to Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan, respectively. 

However, with an improved rushing attack under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State has prioritized the run all season. Success on the ground has led to some of the Nittany Lions’ most dominant performances offensively. Expect a similar game plan on the national stage Saturday night.

Ducks passing game vs. Nittany Lions pass defense

© Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

It is not surprising that Dan Lanning and Oregon have one of the best passing attacks in the nation. The Ducks went out and secured one of the top quarterbacks from the transfer portal last offseason, Dillon Gabriel, and the move has paid off. The former UCF and Oklahoma gunslinger has completed nearly 74% of his passes for 3,275 yards with a 24-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. 

The impressive part of an offense with that many passing yards per game is the team completion percentage. The Ducks are first in the FBS, completing 73.6% of their passes as a team. Much of the team’s offense is the short and intermediate passing game. Yards after catch come from receivers like Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Traeshon Holden and tight end Terrance Ferguson. 

AJ Harris and Jalen Kimber help lead the 7th best pass defense in the FBS (169.8 yards per game). The cornerback duo, along with safeties Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley, will have to keep Oregon’s playmakers in front of them to prevent explosive plays. Tackling will be at a premium so the Nittany Lions can get off the field. If Penn State can get Oregon in third and long situations, expect Tom Allen to dial up the pressure on Dillon Gabriel. 

Other notable statistics

© Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

The red zone is an area to watch for Penn State football. The Nittany Lions are 47th in the FBS, with 87% of their red zone trips resulting in a score. The Ducks are slightly better, tied for 41st with 87.5% of their red zone trips ending in points. 

However, the disparity comes in red zone defense. Penn State has only given up points in the red zone 76% of the time (20th), while Oregon has given up points in the red zone 83.3% of the time (tied-72nd). If the Nittany Lions can slow the Ducks’ dynamic offense at the goal line, it could be the difference in a game of this scale.

Conversely, third down may be an advantage for the Ducks. They have converted 49.7% of their third downs (7th) compared to Penn State’s 47.2% (14th). On defense, Tosh Lupoi’s group is allowing opponents to convert on only 31.8% of their third down attempts (15th). Tom Allen’s defense is 27th in allowing 33.5% of third downs to be converted. Oregon’s short passing game generally keeps the offense on schedule, allowing for easier third downs. 

Stats like completion percentage, turnover margin, and sacks allowed, among others, are all very close between the two sides. Will Oregon be able to get yards after catch on short and intermediate passes, or will Penn State be able to control the game on the ground and take pressure off of Drew Allar? Ultimately, whichever team can force the other to play its style of game will most likely be hoisting the Big Ten Championship trophy come Saturday night.

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